Astral Codex Ten

AI 2027

3 min read

AI 2027

Article

AI 2027 is a recurring concept in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between April 08, 2025 and October 13, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as “doomed humanity in that AI 2027 thing”; “reception of the AI 2027 scenario in the United States”. It most often appears alongside 1960s sci-fi, 2023, Aaron Silverbook.

Metadata

  • Category: Concepts
  • Mention count: 2
  • Issue count: 2
  • First seen: April 08, 2025
  • Last seen: October 13, 2025

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

My Takeaways From AI 2027
April 08, 2025 · Original source
AI 2027 objects to the first bottleneck: smarter researchers can use compute more efficiently. In fact, we know this is happening; about half of all AI scaling since 2020 has been algorithmic progress, where we get better at using the compute we have. If we hold compute constant, but get 10x algorithmic progress (because of the intelligence explosion), then we get 5x overall AI improvement.
AI 2027 disagrees. Although the counter-objection is directionally correct, there are little ways intelligence can boost speed even when compute is held constant. How do we know? Partly through armchair attempts to enumerate possibilities - for example, even if you can’t speed up by adding more researchers, surely giving the same researchers higher serial speed has to count for something. And partly because we surveyed AI researchers and asked “if you had a bunch of AIs helping you but only the same amount of compute, how much faster would your research go?” and they mostly said somewhat faster. All these little boosts will compound on themselves in typical intelligence-explosion fashion, and when you game it out, you get a one-year-or-so takeoff to superintelligence.
Inline links: disagrees
When real-world researchers debate whether or not to implement neuralese, we hope they think “Hey, isn’t this the decision that doomed humanity in that AI 2027 thing?”
ACX Grants Results 2025
October 13, 2025 · Original source
Bengusu Ozcan, $30K, to raise awareness on AGI among EU policymakers. We were encouraged by the reception of the AI 2027 scenario in the United States. Bengusu’s team at the Center for Future Generations works on producing similar scenarios in Europe and explaining them to EU policy-makers. Our grant helps pay for their facilities, administrative overhead, and a quantitative dashboard add-on to the scenario presentations.