Astral Codex Ten

Roe v. Wade

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Roe v. Wade

Article

Roe v. Wade is a recurring concept in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 5 times across 5 issues between February 09, 2021 and February 20, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “In 1976, three years after Roe v. Wade, Democrats and Republicans were about equally likely to support abortion restrictions”; “Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade (65%): SELL to 60%”; “Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade”. It most often appears alongside Democrats, Republicans, Russia.

Metadata

  • Category: Concepts
  • Mention count: 5
  • Issue count: 5
  • First seen: February 09, 2021
  • Last seen: February 20, 2023

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Book Review: Why We're Polarized
February 09, 2021 · Original source
In 1976, three years after Roe v. Wade, Democrats and Republicans were about equally likely to support abortion restrictions. That same year, a poll found that "only 54% of the electorate believed that the Republican Party was more conservative than the Democratic Party"; 30% thought there was no difference. As late as 2004, about equal numbers (within 5 pp) of Democrats and Republicans agreed with statements like "government is almost always wasteful and inefficient" and "immigrants are a burden on our country". Between the late 60s and early 90s, Democratic presidents deregulated the airlines and passed welfare reform; Republican presidents pushed immigration amnesties and founded the EPA.
Inline links: As late as 2004
Predictions For 2022
February 01, 2022 · Original source
VOX PREDICTIONS 1. Democrats will lose their majorities in the House and Senate (95%): SELL TO 90% 2. Inflation in the US will average under three percent (80%): HOLD 3. Unemployment in the US will fall below four percent by November (80%): SELL to 60% if they mean in November, otherwise hold 4. Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade (65%): SELL to 60% 5. Stephen Breyer will retire from the Supreme Court (55%): N/A 6. Emmanuel Macron will be reelected president of France (65%): HOLD 7. Jair Bolsonaro will be reelected president of Brazil (55%): SELL to 50% 8. Bongbong Marcos will be elected president of the Philippines (55%): BUY to 60% 9. Rebels will not capture Addis Ababa (55%): N/A 10. China will not reopen its borders in the first half of 2022 (80%): BUY to 90% 11. Chinese GDP will continue to grow for the first 3/4 of the year (95%): SELL to 90% 12. 20% of US kids between 0.5 and 5 years old will get at least one COVID vaccine by year's end (65%): HOLD 13. WHO will designate another Variant Of Concern by year's end (75%): HOLD 14. 12 billion COVID shots will be given out globally by 11/2022 (80%): HOLD 15. At least one country will have less than 10% of people vaccinated with two shots by 11/2022 (70%): BUY to 95% 16. A psychedelic drug will be decriminalized/legalized in at least one more US state (75%): HOLD 17. AI will discover a new drug promising enough for clinical trials (85%): HOLD 18. US govt will not renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research (60%): HOLD 19. The Biden administration will set the social cost of carbon at $100/ton or more (70%): HOLD 20. 2022 will be warmer than 2021 (80%): HOLD 21. Kenneth Branagh's Belfast will win Best Picture (55%): SELL to 30% 22. Norway will win the most medals at the 2022 Winter Olympics (60%): HOLD
22
May 10, 2022 · Original source
Will Russia formally declare war on Ukraine before August?: (new) → 19% Aborcasting IE predicting the results of the recent Supreme Court link. Quick summary: markets already expected that the Court would overturn Roe v. Wade (~70% soon), but this moved them closer to 95% immediately. Democrats’ chances in the mid-terms went up 3-5% on the news. Markets are extremely skeptical of claims that this will lead to bans on gay marriage or interracial marriage, or that the Democrats will respond with (successful) court-packing. A single very small and unreliable market says the leak probably came from the left, not the right. Going through at greater length one-by-one: First: how much did the leak change predictions about the case itself? PredictIt had a market going, which said that even before the leak there was only a 15% chance the Court would make Mississippi allow abortions; after the leak, that dropped to 4%. A Metaculus question on Roe v. Wade overturned by 2028 went from 70% to 95%: A question on court packing hasn’t moved at all, suggesting Metaculus doesn’t think this response is in the Democratic playbook. A question on Obergefell v. Hodges, with good participation both before and after the leak, shows no change in probability - it stays consistently around 18-20%. Here’s PredictIt on Republicans’ chances of taking the Senate in November: The red line marks the Supreme Court leak. After a month of near-stability, Democrats’ chances went from 22% to 29%, before stabilizing around 26%. Markets on the Senate and on other sites like Polymarket tell a similar story. This is as far as we can go without using Manifold. Manifold questions have much less volume than PredictIt or Metaculus, and I have much less confidence in them, but for the record, here are a few: Disclaimer: I moved that one a bit myself, it was around 77% and I thought that was too high. Despite the fearmongering, this one looks about right to me. Disclaimer that Manifold probably can’t handle probabilities this small correctly and there’s no reason to think 0.2% is more realistic than 2%. It’s not 10% though. I couldn’t find some markets I wanted, so I’ve created them on Manifold for you to bet on: Will the Supreme Court leaker’s identity be known by 2023?
Inline links: Will Russia formally declare war on Ukraine before August?, a market going, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LriF!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4dbaa6f-7f4b-465a-bbf3-844e8ee84a41_487x357.png, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BN85!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F786526b8-4963-4425-9815-d84e13ef5dd7_767x447.png, question on court packing, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NiHN!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec90ad32-4f0d-4092-b284-550bba522a4b_773x455.png, Obergefell v. Hodges, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KuhF!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa78df5a-89b2-40a2-aa2f-d11120876cdd_769x466.png, PredictIt, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!x1aF!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c12404d-769c-4c3b-b863-ca7084ede93c_675x467.png, Polymarket, https://manifold.markets/fortenforge/did-the-dobbs-v-jackson-leak-come-f, https://manifold.markets/BrianAhuja/will-interracial-marriage-be-banned, Will the Supreme Court leaker’s identity be known by 2023?
A Metaculus question on Roe v. Wade overturned by 2028 went from 70% to 95%: A question on court packing hasn’t moved at all, suggesting Metaculus doesn’t think this response is in the Democratic playbook. A question on Obergefell v. Hodges, with good participation both before and after the leak, shows no change in probability - it stays consistently around 18-20%. Here’s PredictIt on Republicans’ chances of taking the Senate in November: The red line marks the Supreme Court leak. After a month of near-stability, Democrats’ chances went from 22% to 29%, before stabilizing around 26%. Markets on the Senate and on other sites like Polymarket tell a similar story. This is as far as we can go without using Manifold. Manifold questions have much less volume than PredictIt or Metaculus, and I have much less confidence in them, but for the record, here are a few: Disclaimer: I moved that one a bit myself, it was around 77% and I thought that was too high. Despite the fearmongering, this one looks about right to me. Disclaimer that Manifold probably can’t handle probabilities this small correctly and there’s no reason to think 0.2% is more realistic than 2%. It’s not 10% though. I couldn’t find some markets I wanted, so I’ve created them on Manifold for you to bet on: Will the Supreme Court leaker’s identity be known by 2023?
Inline links: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BN85!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F786526b8-4963-4425-9815-d84e13ef5dd7_767x447.png, question on court packing, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NiHN!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec90ad32-4f0d-4092-b284-550bba522a4b_773x455.png, Obergefell v. Hodges, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KuhF!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa78df5a-89b2-40a2-aa2f-d11120876cdd_769x466.png, PredictIt, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!x1aF!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c12404d-769c-4c3b-b863-ca7084ede93c_675x467.png, Polymarket, https://manifold.markets/fortenforge/did-the-dobbs-v-jackson-leak-come-f, https://manifold.markets/BrianAhuja/will-interracial-marriage-be-banned, Will the Supreme Court leaker’s identity be known by 2023?
By the way, in 2018, I got this horribly wrong - I said only a 1% chance of Roe v. Wade getting repealed in the next 5 years. I’ll comment on that further when I review that post in 2023.
Inline links: in 2018, I got this horribly wrong
Links For June
July 01, 2022 · Original source
14: Knowledge And Sentiments Of Roe v. Wade: “65.7% of the sample incorrectly answered that abortion would be illegal everywhere if Roe v. Wade were overturned." (h/t Ramesh Ponnuru)
Inline links: Knowledge And Sentiments Of Roe v. Wade, Ramesh Ponnuru
Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023
February 20, 2023 · Original source
1. Trump wins 2020: 20% 2. Republicans win Presidency in 2020: 40% 3. Sanders wins 2020: 10% 4. Democrats win Presidency in 2020: 60% 5. At least one US state has approved single-payer health-care by 2023: 70% 6. At least one US state has de facto decriminalized hallucinogens: 20% 7. At least one US state has seceded (de jure or de facto): 1% 8. At least 10 members of 2022 Congress from neither Dems or GOP: 1% 9. US in at least new one major war (death toll of 1000+ US soldiers): 40% 10. Roe v. Wade substantially overturned: 1% 11. At least one major (Obamacare-level) federal health care reform bill passed: 20% 12. At least one major (Brady Act level) federal gun control bill passed: 20% 13. Marijuana legal on the federal level (states can still ban): 40% 14. Neoliberals will be mostly Democrat/evenly split/Republican in 2023: 60%/20%/20% 15. Political polarization will be worse/the same/better in 2023: 50%/30%/20%
The prediction I am most proud of is the (admittedly conditional, not strongly asserted) possibility that AIs would be able to generate stories and images to a prompt. The prediction I’m least proud of is that Roe v. Wade definitely wouldn’t be overturned.