S&P500
Article
S&P500 is a recurring concept in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between February 25, 2021 and March 05, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as ""…until they have the same kind of liquidity as the S&P500.""; “subset to those who had given forecasts on the S&P500 and Bitcoin questions”. It most often appears alongside Substack, @wc1766, Adam.
Metadata
- Category: Concepts
- Mention count: 2
- Issue count: 2
- First seen: February 25, 2021
- Last seen: March 05, 2024
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Substack (2 shared issues)
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- @wc1766 (1 shared issues)
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- Adam (1 shared issues)
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- Adam Unikowsky (1 shared issues)
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- Akron (1 shared issues)
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- Amherst (1 shared issues)
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- Andrey S (1 shared issues)
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- Ben Carson (1 shared issues)
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- Berkeley (1 shared issues)
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- Bitcoin (1 shared issues)
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- Blind Mode (1 shared issues)
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- Blind Mode (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
...e prediction markets. Yes, really. Repeal all bans on prediction markets and give tax breaks for participating in them, until they have the same kind of liquidity as the S&P500. You'll get a decentralized, populist, credentialism-free, market-based alternative to expertise. When the prediction markets outperform 75% of experts, fire them and sa...
...ifold Markets for these questions. I then compared those forecasts to the forecasts of superforecasters in the blind data, subset to those who had given forecasts on the S&P500 and Bitcoin questions that were reasonably consistent with the efficiency of markets; I subset to those who forecasted between 30% and 80% for the probability that the S...
...0 and Bitcoin questions that were reasonably consistent with the efficiency of markets; I subset to those who forecasted between 30% and 80% for the probability that the S&P500 and Bitcoin would increase during 2023, which were the only reasonable predictions by the time blind mode ended in mid-January. I then used my own judgment to tweak fore...
...method as: I began by collecting data from Manifold Markets for these questions. I then compared those forecasts to the forecasts of superforecasters in the blind data, subset to those who had given forecasts on the S&P500 and Bitcoin questions that were reasonably consistent with the efficiency of markets; I subset to those who forecasted between 30% and 80% for the probability that the S&P500 and Bitcoin woul...