Ukraine War
Article
Ukraine War is a recurring concept in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 4 times across 4 issues between March 21, 2022 and December 17, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “predicting the Ukraine War right now”; “for example, they still don’t have any questions about the Ukraine war”; “Are you going to deny the Ukraine war?“. It most often appears alongside AI, CFTC, effective altruism.
Metadata
- Category: Concepts
- Mention count: 4
- Issue count: 4
- First seen: March 21, 2022
- Last seen: December 17, 2024
Appears In
Related Pages
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- AI (2 shared issues)
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- CFTC (2 shared issues)
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- effective altruism (2 shared issues)
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- Hedgehog Markets (2 shared issues)
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- Insight (2 shared issues)
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- Insight Prediction (2 shared issues)
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- Kiev (2 shared issues)
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- Manifold (2 shared issues)
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- Meta (2 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (2 shared issues)
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- New York Times (2 shared issues)
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- OpenAI (2 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
The upshot of all of this is that Insight is one of the leading platforms for predicting the Ukraine War right now:
Inline links: predicting the Ukraine War
Kalshi’s legality is both their biggest strength and their biggest weakness. It’s a weakness because they have to submit a lot of paperwork to the CFTC every time they want to open a new market, let the CFTC spend weeks or months debating its social utility, and sometimes get refused; as a result of this and other regulatory hurdles, they’re usually months behind, and much less interesting than, other prediction markets (for example, they still don’t have any questions about the Ukraine war). On the other hand, they can operate free from regulatory harassment.
“But - “ You grope for words, but realize you are unlikely to convince him on his own terms. You end up just sputtering in disbelief. “You - you can’t just deny the Israel-Palestine conflict! And there are religious aspects to almost every conflict! Are you going to deny the Ukraine war?”
“I deny the Ukraine war”, says a woman sitting next to you, who introduces herself as Irina.
“How - how can you live in Kiev and deny there’s a Ukraine war?”
22: Popular Russian jokes about the Ukraine War.
Inline links: Popular Russian jokes about the Ukraine War