World War III
Article
World War III is a recurring concept in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 7 times across 7 issues between March 01, 2022 and September 03, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “This question defines “World War III” as any war whose combatants have 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population, and in which 10 million people die”; “defuses the chance of World War III”; “Will World War III happen before 2050?“. It most often appears alongside Putin, Russia, Ukraine.
Metadata
- Category: Concepts
- Mention count: 7
- Issue count: 7
- First seen: March 01, 2022
- Last seen: September 03, 2024
Appears In
- Ukraine Warcasting
- Ukraine Thoughts And Links
- 22
- 22
- 22
- Your Book Review: The Internationalists
- Interview Day At Thiel Capital
Related Pages
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- Putin (7 shared issues)
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- Russia (6 shared issues)
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- Ukraine (6 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (5 shared issues)
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- US (4 shared issues)
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- China (3 shared issues)
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- Iraq (3 shared issues)
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- Kyiv (3 shared issues)
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- Manifold (3 shared issues)
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- NATO (3 shared issues)
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- Polymarket (3 shared issues)
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- ACX (2 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
This question defines “World War III” as any war whose combatants have 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population, and in which 10 million people die. Over the past two years, the question has bounced between about 7 and 19 percent. Today it’s at 20%, its highest value ever - but still only a single-digit percent above its baseline.
— Will WWIII happen before 2050? 20% chance
I am not an international relations expert. But every international relations expert whose commentary I have read claims that the extent of Russia’s recent infraction does not give the West the right to declare a no-fly zone in Ukraine. The no-fly zone would be an extreme escalation that would, under international norms, allow Russia to threaten World War III if we didn’t back down. Then we would either have to back down, humiliated, or start World War III. In a situation like that, I pray we would have the courage to back down humiliated. But I would prefer not to test our leaders’ courage in this particular way.
If America actually shoots down Russian planes, there is a decent chance it causes World War III. At the very least, our strategy for preventing World War III would be “shoot them, hope really hard that they don’t shoot back”, WHICH IS NOT A GOOD STRATEGY.
But isn’t it possible that the US could declare the no-fly zone, and the Russians (who also don’t want World War III) would agree not to fly, rather than cause global annihilation?
Will World War III happen before 2050?: 21% —→20%
Inline links: Will World War III happen before 2050?
Will World War III happen before 2050?: 20% →22%
Inline links: Will World War III happen before 2050?
Will World War III happen before 2050?: 22% →25%
Inline links: Will World War III happen before 2050?
Since it began I have, as I think we all have, been trying to make sense of the war in Ukraine. What story does it best fit, and how will its future unfold? Is it the beginning of World War III, as once again a dictator with a powerful army attempts to sweep across Europe, to build or rebuild the Russian Imperium? Is it closer to a religious crusade that will end in Kyiv or not at all? Is it the last gasp of a demographically dying nation? Will it be the model for future wars, that countries that feel threatened can conquer their neighbors?
“This is why we survived the Cold War. People wonder how we managed to get through so many crises and near-misses without starting World War III, but all the world-branches that started World War III got wiped out, so of course we’d find ourselves in one of the lucky survivors.”