INFER

Article

INFER is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between March 01, 2022 and February 20, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “INFER seems totally unreactive; it’s just a vaguely upward-trending line the whole time”; “The INFER forecasting platform is now being led by RAND”; “Across Metaculus, Manifold, Good Judgment, Infer, Kalshi, and Polymarket”. It most often appears alongside Biden, Good Judgment, Kalshi.

Metadata

• Category: Organizations
• Mention count: 2
• Issue count: 2
• First seen: March 01, 2022
• Last seen: February 20, 2024

Appears In

• Ukraine Warcasting
• 24

Related Pages

• • Biden (2 shared issues)
• • Good Judgment (2 shared issues)
• • Kalshi (2 shared issues)
• • Manifold (2 shared issues)
• • Metaculus (2 shared issues)
• • Polymarket (2 shared issues)
• • Ukraine (2 shared issues)
• • 2024 presidential election (1 shared issues)
• • ACX (1 shared issues)
• • Aella (1 shared issues)
• • Afghan government (1 shared issues)
• • AI (1 shared issues)

External Links

• • https://abc7news.com/post/graffiti-in-san-francisco-tagging-vandalism-street/13801629/
• • https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ybj5uLGTomC2Jpdnf/launching-the-infer-forecasting-tournament-for-ea-uni-groups
• • https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/03/20/translating-predictive-coding-into-perceptual-control/
• • https://wonderandaporia.substack.com/p/surely-were-not-moral-monsters
• • https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/nobody-can-make-you-feel-genetically
• • https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/secrets-of-the-great-families
• • https://www.infer-pub.com/
• • https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3nxs2WYDGzJbzcLMp/words-as-hidden-inferences
• • https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/inferential-distance
• • https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3637647/
• • https://www.statista.com/chart/21581/public-opinion-on-easing-stay-at-home-restrictions/

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Ukraine Warcasting

March 01, 2022 · Original source

Another thing you can do with this graph is notice which markets react more vs. less to news. For example, INFER seems totally unreactive; it’s just a vaguely upward-trending line the whole time - I don’t know enough about it to have a good sense of why that would be. Meanwhile, GJI (superforecasters) seem the most reactive. I don’t have a good sense of how to think about this or whether reactivity is necessarily good.

24

February 20, 2024 · Original source

7: The INFER forecasting platform is now being led by RAND, suggesting that important people affiliated with the government are starting to take more interest.

Inline links: INFER, is now being led by RAND

It compares to current crowd forecasts, so we can score now without waiting for resolutions. It uses historical Metaculus predictions to infer how well humans would do, by computing the average Brier score Metaculus users got for predictions made when the Community Prediction was around a given value. More technically, we draw resolutions from the crowd forecast distribution, and compare the expected value of our Brier score to that of Metaculus users.

Across Metaculus, Manifold, Good Judgment, Infer, Kalshi, and Polymarket, we only found 55 questions with large crowds on good geopolitics questions about 2024. Also, this eval only scores binary questions for the same reason - we didn’t find enough continuous questions to get statistical power. (Part of the motivation for the Humans vs. Bots tournament was to double our sample size on binary questions, but we haven’t run new evals on them yet.)

Backlinks

• Good Judgment
• 24
• Organizations: I
• Ukraine Warcasting