TPOT
Article
TPOT is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between April 01, 2024 and February 20, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as “mindlessly absorbing copious amounts of information on Twitter (mostly TPOT accounts)”; “When he arrived at TPOT, they fell upon him”. It most often appears alongside AI corrigibility, AI lab, AI Safety.
Metadata
- Category: Organizations
- Mention count: 2
- Issue count: 2
- First seen: April 01, 2024
- Last seen: February 20, 2025
Appears In
Related Pages
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- AI corrigibility (1 shared issues)
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- AI lab (1 shared issues)
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- AI Safety (1 shared issues)
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- Alignment Research Center (1 shared issues)
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- Anthropic (1 shared issues)
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- Astralcodexten Com (1 shared issues)
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- BusyBeaver(100) (1 shared issues)
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- Centrist Order (1 shared issues)
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- Chicago, IL (1 shared issues)
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- Colbert (1 shared issues)
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- COVID (1 shared issues)
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- Crunch Time (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
A lowly data analyst with a background in economics, from Chicago IL. I placed bets on PredictIt during the 2016 election cycle and came out slightly behind after transaction fees, but otherwise have no formal forecasting experience. My "strategy" consisted of going with my gut (cue the Colbert clip) and skipping the questions where I had no prior information to go off of. I credit all success to luck and mindlessly absorbing copious amounts of information on Twitter (mostly TPOT accounts). If people want to contact me, they can do so at smallsingapore[at]gmail[dot]com (I'll respond more promptly, I promise haha).
Inline links: smallsingapore[at]gmail[dot]com
St. Michael Beisotsukai was sent by Pope Eliezer LXXVII to evangelize to the postrationalists. When he arrived at TPOT, they fell upon him, taunting “If you are so rational, then predict the way we are going to kill you”, for however he predicted, they planned to kill him through some other method. But St. Michael gave a probability distribution across all common methods of execution that also left substantial probability mass on unknown unknowns, and followed it up with an eloquent lecture on out-of-model error. The postrationalists were so impressed that they converted on the spot and didn’t kill him at all - but this was fine, because St. Michael’s distribution had included a 10% chance that this would happen, and later evidence from other missionaries demonstrated this to be well-calibrated.