US Supreme Court
Article
US Supreme Court is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between November 18, 2021 and December 20, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as “influenced the US Supreme Court in Brown v Board of Education”; “the equivalent of US Supreme Court Justices”; “If we submit Question #1 to the Supreme Court, will they rule in favor?“. It most often appears alongside Google, Harvard, Scott.
Metadata
- Category: Organizations
- Mention count: 2
- Issue count: 2
- First seen: November 18, 2021
- Last seen: December 20, 2022
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Google (2 shared issues)
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- Harvard (2 shared issues)
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- Scott (2 shared issues)
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- 23andme (1 shared issues)
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- 7-11 (1 shared issues)
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- AB (1 shared issues)
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- Abraham Mendelssohn (1 shared issues)
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- AGI (1 shared issues)
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- Albert Baez (1 shared issues)
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- Aldous Huxley (1 shared issues)
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- Alfred Russel Wallace (1 shared issues)
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- Alice James (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
Another relevant family that doesn't have the heredity explanation - Gunnar Myrdal won the Economics Nobel in 1974 (partly for work that influenced the US Supreme Court in Brown v Board of Education), and his wife Alva Myrdal won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1982 (the only married couple to win separate Nobels). Their daughter, Sissela, is a moderately known philosopher, who married the President of Harvard, Derek Bok. Their daughter Hilary Bok is another philosopher, who also had a bit of fame with the political blog Obsidian Wings a decade or so ago.
If we decide to redo Study #2, will we get the same results? …and so on. Obviously the market can’t be sure how studies will turn out - otherwise we wouldn’t need scientists or experiments! But this acts as a force multiplier, letting you get predictions about 100 studies even if you can only do one - and might guide which one you redo. Predicting replicability—Analysis of survey and prediction market data from large-scale forecasting projects, published in PLoS One, attempted this and found the markets were pretty accurate - 73% was their headline finding, but read the study for more. One participant wrote about his experience: How I Made $10K Predicting Which Studies Will Replicate. You can learn more about this project at replicationmarkets.com Eliezer Yudkowsky once wrote a story about a civilization that settled legal questions this way. They had a few truly brilliant legal experts - the equivalent of US Supreme Court Justices - but not enough to answer every possible question that might come up. So for each question they made a prediction market: If we submit Question #1 to the Supreme Court, will they rule in favor?
Inline links: Predicting replicability—Analysis of survey and prediction market data from large-scale forecasting projects, How I Made $10K Predicting Which Studies Will Replicate, replicationmarkets.com
If we submit Question #1 to the Supreme Court, will they rule in favor?