Hayek
Article
Hayek is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 3 times across 3 issues between July 23, 2021 and March 04, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as “Related: H.P. Lovecraft on Hayek”; “We’ve all read Hayek”; “best economist by asking … Hayek”. It most often appears alongside Robin Hanson, Tyler Cowen, Ace Attorney.
Metadata
- Category: People
- Mention count: 3
- Issue count: 3
- First seen: July 23, 2021
- Last seen: March 04, 2022
Appears In
- Links For July
- Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You
- What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?
Related Pages
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- Robin Hanson (2 shared issues)
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- Tyler Cowen (2 shared issues)
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- Ace Attorney (1 shared issues)
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- Adam Smith (1 shared issues)
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- Ajeya Cotra (1 shared issues)
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- Amazon (1 shared issues)
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- atomic bomb (1 shared issues)
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- Ayatollah Khameini (1 shared issues)
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- Bay Area (1 shared issues)
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- Bible (1 shared issues)
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- bimagrumab (1 shared issues)
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- Botox (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
COWEN: Why doesn’t business use more prediction markets? They would seem to make sense, right? Bet on ideas. Aggregate information. We’ve all read Hayek.
A few weeks ago, when I posted my predictions for 2022, a commenter mentioned that various “rationalist” “celebrities” - Eliezer Yudkowsky, Julia Galef, maybe even Steven Pinker - should join in, and then we would find out who is most rational of all. I hope this post explains why I don’t think this would work. You can’t find the best economist by asking Keynes, Hayek, and Marx to all found companies and see which makes the most profit - that’s confusing money-making with the study of money-making. These two things might be correlated - I assume knowing things about supply and demand helps when starting a company, and Keynes did in fact make bank - but they’re not exactly the same. Likewise, I don’t think the best superforecasters are always the people with the most insight into rationality - they might be best at truth-seeking, but not necessarily at studying truth-seeking.
Inline links: Keynes did in fact make bank