Karger
Article
Karger is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between November 15, 2021 and August 28, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “paper, by Karger, Monrad, Mellers, and Tetlock - Reciprocal Scoring”; “The AI experts from Karger et al. did the next best”. It most often appears alongside Metaculus, Polymarket, prediction markets.
Metadata
- Category: People
- Mention count: 2
- Issue count: 2
- First seen: November 15, 2021
- Last seen: August 28, 2023
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Metaculus (2 shared issues)
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- Polymarket (2 shared issues)
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- prediction markets (2 shared issues)
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- PredictIt (2 shared issues)
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- 2024: Bullish on Blue (1 shared issues)
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- ACX forecasting contest (1 shared issues)
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- AI Advances by 2025 (1 shared issues)
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- America (1 shared issues)
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- August 31 (1 shared issues)
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- Bay (1 shared issues)
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- Biden (1 shared issues)
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- Brauner et al. (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
Now there’s a paper, by Karger, Monrad, Mellers, and Tetlock - Reciprocal Scoring: A Method For Forecasting Unanswerable Questions.
Overall, here is how I would summarize the results: Metaculus and I did the best and were both well-calibrated, with the Metaculus crowd forecast doing slightly better than me. The AI experts from Karger et al. did the next best. They had similar medians to me but were (probably) overconfident in the tails. The superforecasters from Karger et al. did the next best. They (probably) systematically underpredicted progress. The forecasters from Hypermind did the worst. They underpredicted progress significantly on MMLU.