Base Rate Times
Article
Base Rate Times is a recurring publication in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between October 09, 2023 and February 20, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “nobody invested in the Base Rate Times , a newspaper-styled prediction market dashboard”; “Base Rate Times has a list of the Twitter accounts of ~40 superforecasters”. It most often appears alongside Manifold, Polymarket, 2024 presidential election.
Metadata
- Category: Publications
- Mention count: 2
- Issue count: 2
- First seen: October 09, 2023
- Last seen: February 20, 2024
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Manifold (2 shared issues)
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- Polymarket (2 shared issues)
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- 2024 presidential election (1 shared issues)
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- Academic Decathlon (1 shared issues)
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- ACX Grants (1 shared issues)
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- EA community (1 shared issues)
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- Aella (1 shared issues)
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- AI (1 shared issues)
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- Astral Codex Ten (1 shared issues)
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- Astralcodexten (1 shared issues)
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- Astralcodexten Com (1 shared issues)
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- Augur (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
Over the past six months, founders have worked on their projects. Some collapsed, losing their investors all their money. Others flourished, shooting up in value far beyond investor predictions. We got five judges (including me) to assess the final value of each of the 18 projects. Their results mostly determine what I will be offering investors for their impact certificates (see caveats below). They are: We’ll be buying back impact certs at the value on the MEDIAN column - so, for example, we’ll pay $300 for 100% of the certs for the Crystal Ballin’ Podcast.
On the other hand, nobody invested in the Base Rate Times, a newspaper-styled prediction market dashboard. But project leader Marcel pursued it anyway, with his own money, and we ended up valuing it at $6,000 - if it had been in our market, it would have been the second-most-successful project out of 18. No mystery why people didn’t invest in it - Marcel valued it at $20,000, nobody else thought it was worth that much, and if they had invested they would have (at our $6,000 valuation) lost money. If this had been a normal grants round, Marcel could have asked for a grant, received only however much it cost to make it (up to $6,000), and had it gone well. It still sort of went well, since Marcel made it anyway, but I feel like this is another mark against our methods.
Enjoy the public goods we’ve produced. The Crystal Ballin’ Podcast has one episode and is hoping to make more (as are their competitors, the Market Manipulation Podcast). OPTIC is looking for participants and volunteers. You can still use Manifolio to make Kelly bets, the Telegram bot for Telegram-based prediction markets, and the browser extension to see what Manifold markets people are betting on. And although it’s not technically one of ours, I still like The Base Rate Times.
6: Base Rate Times has a list of the Twitter accounts of ~40 superforecasters and other great predictors.
Inline links: has a list