Vox Future Perfect
Article
Vox Future Perfect is a recurring publication in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 3 times across 3 issues between December 27, 2021 and January 24, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “a lot of their “public figures” right now are Vox Future Perfect journalists”; “35: Vox Future Perfect is looking for more EA journalists”; “Matt Yglesias and Vox Future Perfect didn’t officially enter the competition, but we adapted some of their questions”. It most often appears alongside Amazon, California, Eric.
Metadata
- Category: Publications
- Mention count: 3
- Issue count: 3
- First seen: December 27, 2021
- Last seen: January 24, 2023
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Amazon (2 shared issues)
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- California (2 shared issues)
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- Eric (2 shared issues)
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- Google (2 shared issues)
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- Less Wrong (2 shared issues)
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- Matt Yglesias (2 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (2 shared issues)
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- Russia (2 shared issues)
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- Twitter (2 shared issues)
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- Ukraine (2 shared issues)
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- 80,000 Hours (1 shared issues)
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- @itsahousingtrap (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
Unfortunately, a lot of their “public figures” right now are Vox Future Perfect journalists, the only famous people who consistently make hard-and-fast predictions and give clear probability estimates.
35: This month in effective altruism: Vox Future Perfect is looking for more EA journalists. Charlie RS has a guide to How To Pursue A Career In Technical AI Alignment, and 80,000 Hours has updated their own page on same. I also liked Julian Hazell’s Why I View Effective Giving As Complementary To Direct Work.
Matt Yglesias and Vox Future Perfect didn’t officially enter the competition, but we adapted some of their questions (Matt, VFP). For the subset of questions they answered (quick calculation, haven’t double-checked, take with a grain of salt), Matt scored in the 46th percentile, and Future Perfect scored in the 17th. Thanks to both Matt and Vox for (nonconsensually) participating!
Matt Yglesias scored his question “Will Nancy Pelosi announce plans to retire?” as TRUE, but technically she only announced that she would retire as Democratic leader, not as a Congresswoman, so the question is false as written. Vox Future Perfect scored their question “Will the Biden administration set a social cost of carbon at > $100” as PARTIALLY RIGHT, because they announced plans to maybe do this, but they have not done it yet and the question is false as written. We originally resolved “Will a Biden administration Cabinet-level official resign?” as FALSE, but Eric Lander, a science advisor who resigned, was technically Cabinet-level and the question as written is true. These changes didn’t affect headline results much, but they shifted some people up or down a few places, and shifted a few people with very high confidence on these questions up or down a few dozen places.
Inline links: who resigned