GOP
Article
GOP is a recurring concept in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between July 12, 2022 and August 16, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as “If Silver’s right, even now the markets are overestimating the GOP”; “Trump is much more likely to get the GOP nomination”. It most often appears alongside DeSantis, Donald Trump, Metaculus.
Metadata
- Category: Concepts
- Mention count: 2
- Issue count: 2
- First seen: July 12, 2022
- Last seen: August 16, 2022
Appears In
Related Pages
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- DeSantis (2 shared issues)
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- Donald Trump (2 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (2 shared issues)
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- Polymarket (2 shared issues)
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- PredictIt (2 shared issues)
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- 6 Committee (1 shared issues)
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- 538 (1 shared issues)
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- 538 (1 shared issues)
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- @tnim_ (1 shared issues)
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- Africa (1 shared issues)
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- AI (1 shared issues)
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- Aristotle (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
Related: Liz Cheney says the Republican Party “can’t survive” nominating Trump in 2024. This is exactly the kind of prediction I anticipate people walking back if they were asked to make it formally. Let’s say “conditional on Trump as 2024 nominee, Republicans won’t get >40% of the vote in either of the 2028 or 2032 presidential elections”. Would Liz Cheney - or anyone else - really take that bet, at any odds? Is there any formulation matching a commonsense notion of “not surviving” they would accept?
Inline links: Liz Cheney says the Republican Party “can’t survive”
This is pretty bizarre: Polymarket says Trump is much more likely to get the GOP nomination than DeSantis, but PredictIt said the opposite. Polymarket’s been at this level for a while, so it’s not just a week ago vs. now.