Astral Codex Ten

Obamacare

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Obamacare

Article

Obamacare is a recurring concept in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 4 times across 4 issues between January 19, 2023 and July 24, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “Obamacare was passed in 2010”; “even if Obamacare causes budget deficits”; “At least one major (Obamacare-level) federal health care reform bill passed”. It most often appears alongside India, China, Democratic Party.

Metadata

  • Category: Concepts
  • Mention count: 4
  • Issue count: 4
  • First seen: January 19, 2023
  • Last seen: July 24, 2024

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Which Political Victories Cause Backlash?
January 19, 2023 · Original source
Obamacare was passed in 2010. How did it affect people’s opinion of government-run health care? More data (source):
Inline links: source
Maybe it has to do with how quickly people can find a case of the new law going wrong? My impression of the post-Dobbs debate on abortion was that it centered on an incredibly sympathetic 10-year-old rape victim from Ohio who really needed an abortion but was having trouble getting one - a few stories like that can probably move opinion a lot. In contrast, even if Obamacare causes budget deficits or whatever, it’s harder to find a specific victim. This doesn’t quite fit the free trade vs. protectionism example though, although it fits some other Trump issues like deportation.
Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023
February 20, 2023 · Original source
1. Trump wins 2020: 20% 2. Republicans win Presidency in 2020: 40% 3. Sanders wins 2020: 10% 4. Democrats win Presidency in 2020: 60% 5. At least one US state has approved single-payer health-care by 2023: 70% 6. At least one US state has de facto decriminalized hallucinogens: 20% 7. At least one US state has seceded (de jure or de facto): 1% 8. At least 10 members of 2022 Congress from neither Dems or GOP: 1% 9. US in at least new one major war (death toll of 1000+ US soldiers): 40% 10. Roe v. Wade substantially overturned: 1% 11. At least one major (Obamacare-level) federal health care reform bill passed: 20% 12. At least one major (Brady Act level) federal gun control bill passed: 20% 13. Marijuana legal on the federal level (states can still ban): 40% 14. Neoliberals will be mostly Democrat/evenly split/Republican in 2023: 60%/20%/20% 15. Political polarization will be worse/the same/better in 2023: 50%/30%/20%
First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide. Rich people, the government, and corporations will use formal, well-regulated, traditional institutions. Poor people (and to an increasing degree middle-class people) will use informal gig economies supported by Silicon Valley companies whose main skill is staying a step ahead of regulators. Think business travelers staying at the Hilton and riding taxis, vs. low-prospect twenty-somethings staying at Air BnBs and taking Ubers. As Obamacare collapses, health insurance will start turning into one of the formal, well-regulated, traditional institutions limited to college grads with good job prospects. What the unofficial version of health care will be remains to be seen. If past eras have been Stone Age, Bronze Age, Iron Age, Information Age, etc, the future may be the Ability-To-Circumvent-Regulations Age.
Contra Hanson On Medical Effectiveness
April 24, 2024 · Original source
Obamacare originally mandated that everyone get health insurance, and punished noncompliance with a fine. In 2017, the IRS fined 4.5 million people for not having insurance. It originally planned to send these people a letter, saying “Obamacare mandates you to have insurance, you’re getting fined for failing to comply, please buy insurance through such-and-such a website.” But it ran out of budget after sending 3.9 million letters to a randomly selected subset of the insuranceless. The letter must have been at least a little convincing, because the 3.9 million recipients were 1.3 percentage points more likely to get insurance compared to the 0.6 million non-recipients. So the whole event turned out as a sort of randomized trial of telling people to get insurance.
Sommers, Baicker, and Epstein: finds that when some states expanded Medicaid after Obamacare, mortality rate in those states (but not comparison states) went down, p = 0.001. Note that Baicker was one of the main people behind the Oregon experiment.
Inline links: Sommers, Baicker, and Epstein
Links for July 2024
July 24, 2024 · Original source
1: The data show teenage depression rates going way up around 2012, lending credibility to stories about social media harming mental health. But Alex Stapp (readable) and David Wallace-Wells (paywalled) argue it’s an artifact of Obamacare-related changes to hospitals’ depression reporting practices. Now I feel silly - for anything that sudden, reporting changes should always be your first guess!
Inline links: Alex Stapp, David Wallace-Wells