Astral Codex Ten

Roe

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Roe

Article

Roe is a recurring concept in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 5 times across 5 issues between March 03, 2021 and February 20, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “Roe (the pro-abortion party in Roe vs. Wade)”; “Democrats are angry about the overturning of Roe”; “Supreme Court overturning Roe”. It most often appears alongside Ukraine, Democrats, Germany.

Metadata

  • Category: Concepts
  • Mention count: 5
  • Issue count: 5
  • First seen: March 03, 2021
  • Last seen: February 20, 2023

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Links For March
March 03, 2021 · Original source
7: In 1995: Roe (the pro-abortion party in Roe vs. Wade) shocked the nation when she announced she had changed her mind and was pro-life now. Now: in a documentary, she appears to admit that she did it to get money from evangelical groups, who showered her with gifts and speaking fees (up to $500,000 total). The pro-life community counterargue that she seemed sincere to them, the gift-giving was normal and unprompted, and maybe she changed her mind later. And here’s a perspective from one of the ministers who worked with and paid her.
Inline links: appears to admit, counterargue that she seemed sincere to them, here’s a perspective
22
July 12, 2022 · Original source
Democrats are angry about the overturning of Roe. Republicans are happy, but angry people vote and happy people mostly don’t. So plausibly the decision increases Democrats’ chance of keeping the Senate later this year:
Which Political Victories Cause Backlash?
January 19, 2023 · Original source
After a major conservative victory (the Supreme Court overturning Roe), Americans’ opinions shifted heavily in a pro-choice direction after a long period of stalemate. The change seems to be of about equal magnitude regardless of political affiliation:
Who Predicted 2022?
January 24, 2023 · Original source
No direct inline source block was recovered for this mention.
Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023
February 20, 2023 · Original source
I count predictions 4, 6, and 10 as having happened, and 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, and 13 as not having happened. I’m resolving 14 as Democrat, 15 as the same. My biggest failure here was 10, where I gave Roe vs. Wade only a 1% chance (!) of being overturned! Looking back, in early 2018 the court was 5-4 Democrat [edit: 5-4 Republican, but one of them was Kennedy who wasn’t going to overturn Roe], and one of the Republicans was John Roberts, who’s moderate and hates change. I was thinking the court would need two new Republicans, which was a lot to ask of a half-over presidential term, and which required Republicans to keep the Senate during the midterms. And even if the two new justices arrived, overturning Roe would be a startling and unusual break with precedent; even if the justices wanted to restrict abortion, I expected them to do something which kept a fig leaf of not having overturned Roe. And even if I was totally wrong, I expected it to take more than five years for all of this to happen. But in fact they got two more Republican justices, they were willing to break with precedent, and they did it fast.
1. Trump wins 2020: 20% 2. Republicans win Presidency in 2020: 40% 3. Sanders wins 2020: 10% 4. Democrats win Presidency in 2020: 60% 5. At least one US state has approved single-payer health-care by 2023: 70% 6. At least one US state has de facto decriminalized hallucinogens: 20% 7. At least one US state has seceded (de jure or de facto): 1% 8. At least 10 members of 2022 Congress from neither Dems or GOP: 1% 9. US in at least new one major war (death toll of 1000+ US soldiers): 40% 10. Roe v. Wade substantially overturned: 1% 11. At least one major (Obamacare-level) federal health care reform bill passed: 20% 12. At least one major (Brady Act level) federal gun control bill passed: 20% 13. Marijuana legal on the federal level (states can still ban): 40% 14. Neoliberals will be mostly Democrat/evenly split/Republican in 2023: 60%/20%/20% 15. Political polarization will be worse/the same/better in 2023: 50%/30%/20%
The prediction I am most proud of is the (admittedly conditional, not strongly asserted) possibility that AIs would be able to generate stories and images to a prompt. The prediction I’m least proud of is that Roe v. Wade definitely wouldn’t be overturned.