Astral Codex Ten

2022 ACX survey

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2022 ACX survey

Article

2022 ACX survey is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between June 14, 2024 and May 22, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as “So I asked about this on the 2022 and 2024 ACX surveys”; “I actually asked about this on the 2022 ACX survey”. It most often appears alongside 2024 ACX survey, ACX, ACX Survey.

Metadata

  • Category: Events
  • Mention count: 2
  • Issue count: 2
  • First seen: June 14, 2024
  • Last seen: May 22, 2025

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Failure To Replicate Anti-Vaccine Poll
June 14, 2024 · Original source
So I asked about this on the 2022 and 2024 ACX surveys. Both gave similar results, but I’m going to focus on the 2024 survey, since I did the most followup on it. Here “family” was defined on the question page as including “brother, sister, mother, father, child, aunt, uncle, grandparent, grandchild, niece, or nephew”. This is broader than Pollfish’s “member of your household” but narrower than Rasmussen’s “person you know”. Kirsch and I got similar results for knowing someone who died of COVID - 6.5% vs. 7.5%. But we got very different results for knowing someone who died from the vaccine: Kirsch’s 8.5% vs. my 0.6%. Why? As people love to point out, my survey is a nonrepresentative sample. But as I point out, it’s important to keep track of when that should vs. shouldn’t matter. No matter how weird my readers are, they’re not biologically invincible - they should have side effects at similar rates to anyone else. One possibility is that my readers are very pro-vaccine compared to the general population, so they interpret ambiguous cases in a more pro-vaccine way. I didn’t have a question about vaccine-related views, but it’s no secret that vaccine opponents are more often right-wing, so I looked at questions about politics. Conservatives in general were only slightly more likely (1%) to report vaccine deaths compared to liberals (0.4%). But I had a question where people ranked their support for Donald Trump. Trump supporters had much higher vaccine injury rates (7.5%) than moderates (1.3%) or opponents (0.3%). I couldn’t find much of an effect by gender, education level, or any of the other traditional demographic categories. This doesn’t quite explain the difference between my survey and the others, since my moderates had 1.3% side effect rate, and the Rasmussen moderates had 22%. But it does suggest that there’s room for political beliefs to alter perception of relatives’ vaccine deaths. II. All of this would be much clearer if we could get in there and ask the people who said their relatives died from vaccines what they meant. Most ACX Survey respondents gave me permission to email them. So I emailed the people who answered “yes” to that question and asked for their story. Some details: 5,981 people took the survey
Inline links: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Emtd!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe05b487-80af-4c93-af22-8abf99fa2f13_799x682.png, as
The Evidence That A Million Americans Died Of COVID
May 22, 2025 · Original source
I actually asked about this on the 2022 ACX survey (as part of the research for this post). 6.5% of respondents said a family member had died of COVID (with “family member” described as “first and second degree relatives - ie self, brother, sister, mother, father, child, aunt, uncle, grandparent, grandchild, niece, or nephew”). I think this number is compatible with both “it killed a million people” and “it’s not surprising that most people don’t know anyone who it killed”.
Inline links: the 2022 ACX survey, this post