Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament

Article

Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between July 20, 2023 and August 01, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “the results of the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT)”; “The Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (see here ) is releasing some more information”. It most often appears alongside ACX MEETUP, Metaculus, Adam Binks.

Metadata

• Category: Events
• Mention count: 2
• Issue count: 2
• First seen: July 20, 2023
• Last seen: August 01, 2023

Appears In

• The Extinction Tournament
• 23: Room Temperature Superforecaster

Related Pages

• • ACX MEETUP (2 shared issues)
• • Metaculus (2 shared issues)
• • Adam Binks (1 shared issues)
• • Aella (1 shared issues)
• • AGI (1 shared issues)
• • AI (1 shared issues)
• • Andrew Robinson (1 shared issues)
• • anomalous meteorites (1 shared issues)
• • Aristotle Inc (1 shared issues)
• • Avi Loeb (1 shared issues)
• • Baba Vanga (1 shared issues)
• • Bay Area (1 shared issues)

External Links

• • http://web.archive.org/web/20221104130431/https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/1m-bet-rules
• • http://web.archive.org/web/20221129133112/https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaim-accepts-500000-challenge-on-covid-vaccine-safety-efficacy/
• • http://web.archive.org/web/20221224061743/https://www.skirsch.com/covid/SaarWilf.pdf
• • https://archive.ph/pY4gF#selection-663.103-683.190
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-sadly-porn/comment/5114457
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/dictator-book-club-xi-jinping
• • https://beverlypress.com/2024/05/uptick-in-graffiti-paints-a-bleak-picture/
• • https://biblehub.com/greek/3646.htm
• • https://bjs.ojp.gov/data-collection/ncvs
• • https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/10/book-review-the-prices-are-too-dmn-high/
• • https://static1.squarespace.com/static/635693acf15a3e2a14a56a4a/t/64abffe3f024747dd0e38d71/1688993798938/XPT.pdf
• • https://twitter.com/tobyordoxford/status/1681257760531398657

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

The Extinction Tournament

July 20, 2023 · Original source

This month’s big news in forecasting: the Forecasting Research Institute has released the results of the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT). XPT was supposed to use cutting-edge forecasting techniques to develop consensus estimates of the danger from various global risks like climate change, nuclear war, etc.

Inline links: released the results of the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament

23: Room Temperature Superforecaster

August 01, 2023 · Original source

1: The Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (see here) is releasing some more information and some corollaries of their outcomes - see for example Who’s Right About Inputs Into The Bio Anchors Model? I’ll combine some of these with a Highlights From The Comments post once they get all of them out.

Inline links: here, Who’s Right About Inputs Into The Bio Anchors Model?

Backlinks

• Events: E
• 23: Room Temperature Superforecaster
• The Extinction Tournament