Aristotle Inc
Article
Aristotle Inc is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 3 times across 3 issues between August 16, 2022 and August 01, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “Victoria University did hire a private company, Aristotle Inc, to run operations”; “Aristotle Inc, the company that gets paid to operate PredictIt”; “Aristotle Inc is the company that runs PredictIt”. It most often appears alongside CFTC, Kalshi, Manifold.
Metadata
- Category: Organizations
- Mention count: 3
- Issue count: 3
- First seen: August 16, 2022
- Last seen: August 01, 2023
Appears In
Related Pages
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- CFTC (3 shared issues)
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- Kalshi (3 shared issues)
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- Manifold (3 shared issues)
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- Manifold Markets (3 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (3 shared issues)
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- PredictIt (3 shared issues)
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- 538 (2 shared issues)
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- Aristotle (2 shared issues)
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- Better Markets (2 shared issues)
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- Commodity Futures Trading Commission (2 shared issues)
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- Insight (2 shared issues)
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- Insight (2 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
There was no explanation of how it might not be in compliance with the terms of the letter. PredictIt has clearly stuck to the 5,000 traders and $850 investment limits, and AFAIK no one has accused them of meddling in world events. Victoria University did hire a private company, Aristotle Inc, to run operations, which seems against the “not for profit” clause. But this happened in 2015, and the relationship between PredictIt and Aristotle hasn’t changed since then. Also, supposedly PredictIt has been “in regular communication” with the CFTC throughout its lifespan to make sure they were on the right side of the law; if CFTC was angry about something they did in 2015, why wouldn’t they have told them before now? So what’s going on?
Inline links: supposedly
Finally, there’s a claim that Aristotle, the for-profit company involved with PredictIt, might try to move into the fully-regulated-prediction-market space and compete with Kalshi.
Inline links: a claim that
Aristotle Inc, the company that gets paid to operate PredictIt
Extremely related: Aristotle, the company that runs PredictIt, has also applied to the CFTC to operate election markets. They’re using the name Aristotle Exchange, so I don’t know if this is for PredictIt or some potential future project. They seem pretty serious about this and a very under-invested-in market on Manifold gives them a 53% chance of success by next year.
Inline links: a very under-invested-in market on Manifold
Aristotle Inc is the company that runs PredictIt. PredictIt competes with Kalshi; also, rumor says Kalshi turned regulators against PredictIt and gave them big legal problems. But PredictIt is also naturally interested in promoting permissive regulations for prediction markets, so I was curious what they would say. They not only support Kalshi, but urge the CFTC to allow lower minimum bets than Kalshi requested. This makes sense: Kalshi’s business model is closer to big businesses hedging risks, but PredictIt’s is closer to random individuals making fun bets.
Inline links: Aristotle Inc