Prediction Contest

Article

Prediction Contest is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between February 06, 2023 and October 09, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “Thanks to everyone who entered the Prediction Contest”; “Tom as being a top performer in the 22-and-under age bracket in last year’s Prediction Contest”. It most often appears alongside Manifold, Academic Decathlon, ACX.

Metadata

• Category: Events
• Mention count: 2
• Issue count: 2
• First seen: February 06, 2023
• Last seen: October 09, 2023

Appears In

• Open Thread 262
• Impact Market Mini-Grants Results

Related Pages

• • Manifold (2 shared issues)
• • Academic Decathlon (1 shared issues)
• • ACX (1 shared issues)
• • ACX Grants (1 shared issues)
• • ACX Grants (1 shared issues)
• • EA community (1 shared issues)
• • AI: Markets For Lemons, And The Great Logging Off (1 shared issues)
• • Astralcodexten (1 shared issues)
• • Astralcodexten Com (1 shared issues)
• • Auroville (1 shared issues)
• • Austin (1 shared issues)
• • Austin Chen (1 shared issues)

External Links

• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest
• • https://docs.google.com/document/d/1HZ3UC9JIuhFdlVM_xYtj60a6ba7elWGiAnROMobkFXM/edit
• • https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/10/book-review-the-prices-are-too-dmn-high/
• • https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/details-that-you-should-include-in/comment/61387082
• • https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/secrets-of-the-great-families
• • https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-predicted-2022
• • https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals
• • https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2026/
• • https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Open Thread 262

February 06, 2023 · Original source

1: Thanks to everyone who entered the Prediction Contest; entry is now closed. You can continue to make predictions on Manifold or Metaculus, but they won’t officially count. Also, another prediction market, Futuur, has markets up for the contest questions. I’m pretty excited about this, because although Futuur does let you use play money like Manifold, it also offers real money betting (warning: requires crypto and a non-US IP). If you want to make real money bets on contest questions, now you can (and I’ll be seeing how they compare to the play money markets).

Inline links: Futuur, has markets up for the contest questions

Impact Market Mini-Grants Results

October 09, 2023 · Original source

Tyler Cowen likes to say that grants are as much about investing in people as in projects, so I also wanted to compliment the founders: Jingyi, Saul, and Tom, from (respectively) Brandeis, Brandeis, and Harvard. Saul has since gone on to be the lead organizer for Manifest, a forecasting conference with 200+ attendees and talks by Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, and many more. Jingyi is an officer of Brandeis Effective Altruism. And I remember Tom as being a top performer in the 22-and-under age bracket in last year’s Prediction Contest. Good luck to all of them in their remaining college and future endeavors.

Inline links: Prediction Contest

Backlinks

• Events: P
• Impact Market Mini-Grants Results
• Open Thread 262