CSPI
Article
CSPI is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 4 times across 4 issues between July 29, 2022 and February 29, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “CSPI: It’s Time To Review The Institutional Review Board”; “Sources: Manifold , CSPI , Metaculus , Polymarket , PredictIt , Insight , GJOpen”; “CSPI prediction market tournament”. It most often appears alongside Biden, CFTC, Dynomight.
Metadata
- Category: Organizations
- Mention count: 4
- Issue count: 4
- First seen: July 29, 2022
- Last seen: February 29, 2024
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Biden (2 shared issues)
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- CFTC (2 shared issues)
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- Dynomight (2 shared issues)
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- effective altruism (2 shared issues)
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- Eliezer Yudkowsky (2 shared issues)
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- FDA (2 shared issues)
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- France (2 shared issues)
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- Insight Prediction (2 shared issues)
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- Israel (2 shared issues)
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- Kalshi (2 shared issues)
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- Manifold (2 shared issues)
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- Marginal Revolution (2 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
20: CSPI: It’s Time To Review The Institutional Review Board
Inline links: It’s Time To Review The Institutional Review Board
Sources: Manifold, CSPI, Metaculus, Polymarket, PredictIt, Insight, GJOpen The lowest forecaster is higher than the highest pollster! Taking 538 as an example, forecasters range from 5 pp higher (Manifold) to 17 pp higher (PredictIt). Tournaments and real-money markets tend to give higher numbers than play-money sites. I would go with 47% on this one, based on the convergence between GJO, CSPI, and Polymarket. CFTC vs. PredictIt (and everyone else), Part II The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is the US agency regulating prediction markets. In August, they told PredictIt (the biggest political prediction market) to shut down, effective in February. Now a motley group of stakeholders are suing the CFTC for a stay of execution. Plaintiffs include: 2 professors using the site as “a source of data for research”
Inline links: Manifold, CSPI, Metaculus, Polymarket, PredictIt, Insight, GJOpen, they told PredictIt
1: Jonathan Zubkoff, winner of the CSPI prediction market tournament, explains his strategy.
Inline links: explains his strategy
20: Related: Sebastian Jensen at CSPI looks into the dysgenic hypothesis: are we getting dumber because more intelligent people are less likely to have children? Answer: this is happening more in poorer countries, less in richer ones. IQ decline per decade “ranges from as low as 0.01 points in the Estonia and Switzerland to 0.65 points in Panama, Romania, and North Macedonia”. USA is 0.38, which I think agrees with other estimates, although realistically immigration effects will dominate. “The fact that the rate of decline is so fast implies that even if IQ differences between nations are completely environmentally determined today, over the coming decades there may still be a significant [genetic] divergence between them.”