Astral Codex Ten

Democrat

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Democrat

Article

Democrat is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between August 12, 2021 and October 23, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “educated voters (by a large margin) and rich voters (by a small margin) are more likely to vote Democrat”; “and an attempted coup, do the Democrat”. It most often appears alongside Trump, 2017 presidential election, Amazon.

Metadata

  • Category: Organizations
  • Mention count: 2
  • Issue count: 2
  • First seen: August 12, 2021
  • Last seen: October 23, 2024

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Contra Hanania On Partisanship
August 12, 2021 · Original source
In 2016, for the first time, the richest 1% were more likely to support Democrats than Republicans. This may have reversed in 2020 - I can't find the vote broken down by income percentile, but there was a general trend for rich people to be somewhat more likely to support Trump than in 2016. If this is real and continued, it might bring the US closer to the European mainstream.
Inline links: a general trend
As of 2016, the US is further along this realignment than anywhere else: both educated voters (by a large margin) and rich voters (by a small margin) are more likely to vote Democrat (although the latter may have reversed in 2020).
It feels like it has to, but it’s hard to make the numbers work out. The vast majority of eg journalists have bachelors degrees, but not postgraduate degrees. Piketty tells us that 51% of bachelors-but-not-postgraduate degree holders vote Democrat, which isn't enough to explain any noticeable lean. I'm guessing, though I can't find the data to back it up, that there's a gradient with quality as well as quantity of education - the more selective your school, the more liberal you're likely to be - and then a second effect where people become even more liberal to fit in with mostly-liberal careers.
Inline links: eg journalists
Secrets Of The Median Voter Theorem
October 23, 2024 · Original source
Here’s a simple argument for why this should be true: suppose the Democrats wisely choose a centrist platform, but the Republicans foolishly veer far-right:
The Democrats get most of the vote and win easily.
Elegant as this proof may be, it fails to describe the real world. Democrats and Republicans don’t have platforms exactly identical to each other and to the exact most centrist American. Instead, Democrats are often pretty far left, and Republicans pretty far right. What’s going on? I think at least three things.