First Sigma
Article
First Sigma is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between January 30, 2024 and November 07, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “Original source: First Sigma”; “Here’s a graph of 2022 results, courtesy of First Sigma”. It most often appears alongside Biden, Manifold, Maxim Lott.
Metadata
- Category: Organizations
- Mention count: 2
- Issue count: 2
- First seen: January 30, 2024
- Last seen: November 07, 2024
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Biden (2 shared issues)
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- Manifold (2 shared issues)
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- Maxim Lott (2 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (2 shared issues)
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- Nate Silver (2 shared issues)
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- Polymarket (2 shared issues)
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- PredictIt (2 shared issues)
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- Trump (2 shared issues)
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- 538 (1 shared issues)
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- 538 (1 shared issues)
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- Aaronson (1 shared issues)
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- ACX (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
Original source: First Sigma, who remind us that this is just one election cycle and we shouldn’t update too hard on it. The two real-money prediction markets get 4th and 6th place.
Inline links: First Sigma
First, non-money forecasters have beaten real-money markets in past elections. Here’s a graph of 2022 results, courtesy of First Sigma:
Inline links: First Sigma