Maxim Lott
Article
Maxim Lott is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 8 times across 8 issues between March 14, 2022 and November 07, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “More people make Ukraine predictions: Maxim Lott”; “Maxim Lott tries to do an actually good analysis of worldwide COVID death rates”; “[EDIT: Maxim Lott says this was a 2022-specific problem]“. It most often appears alongside Biden, Metaculus, Polymarket.
Metadata
- Category: People
- Mention count: 8
- Issue count: 8
- First seen: March 14, 2022
- Last seen: November 07, 2024
Appears In
- 22
- Links For October
- 24
- Open Thread 314
- 24
- Prediction Markets Suggest Replacing Biden
- ACX Endorses Harris, Oliver, Or Stein
- Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced
Related Pages
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- Biden (5 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (5 shared issues)
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- Polymarket (5 shared issues)
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- PredictIt (5 shared issues)
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- Trump (5 shared issues)
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- CFTC (4 shared issues)
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- Manifold (4 shared issues)
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- Nate Silver (4 shared issues)
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- Democrats (3 shared issues)
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- Kalshi (3 shared issues)
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- Kamala Harris (3 shared issues)
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- Ukraine (3 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
2: More people make Ukraine predictions: Maxim Lott, Richard Hanania (again), Samo Burja (again), EHarding (possibly trolling?), Robin Hanson (sort of)
19: Maxim Lott tries to do an actually good analysis of worldwide COVID death rates, adjusting for reporting biases.
[EDIT: Maxim Lott says this was a 2022-specific problem, and overall markets have tied 538]
1: Correction to Mantic Monday 1/29: the article discusses how prediction markets did poor-to-mediocre last election. Maxim Lott adds the useful context that over a longer period of three election cycles they’ve generally done pretty well.
Inline links: Mantic Monday 1/29, adds the useful context
Maxim Lott’s article on this for more information, including the chances that this gets tied up in the courts.
Inline links: Maxim Lott’s article on this for more information
John Stossel and Maxim Lott have a site called Election Betting Odds which tries to aggregate information from many different betting markets to answer questions like these. Here are their claimed headline results - this is probability conditional on being nominated:
Inline links: Election Betting Odds
For example, Maxim Lott sort of makes a version of the steelman argument above:
Inline links: Maxim Lott sort of makes a version
Maxim Lott looks at a longer term matchup between all real-money markets and 538. He finds they are mostly equally good over the long term, but that including the most recent results 538 wins by a hair.