Gnosis

Article

Gnosis is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between December 20, 2022 and April 25, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “There was a wave of tools that tried to do this five years ago, like Augur and Gnosis”; “Gnosis, a crypto protocol that never went anywhere, apparently had a $230M market cap”. It most often appears alongside Elon Musk, Good Judgment Project, Kalshi.

Metadata

• Category: Organizations
• Mention count: 2
• Issue count: 2
• First seen: December 20, 2022
• Last seen: April 25, 2023

Appears In

• Prediction Market FAQ
• 23

Related Pages

• • Elon Musk (2 shared issues)
• • Good Judgment Project (2 shared issues)
• • Kalshi (2 shared issues)
• • Manifold (2 shared issues)
• • Manifold Markets (2 shared issues)
• • Metaculus (2 shared issues)
• • Polymarket (2 shared issues)
• • Twitter (2 shared issues)
• • 7-11 (1 shared issues)
• • AGI (1 shared issues)
• • AMC (1 shared issues)
• • API (1 shared issues)

External Links

• • https://beverlypress.com/2024/05/uptick-in-graffiti-paints-a-bleak-picture/
• • https://biblehub.com/greek/3646.htm
• • https://bjs.ojp.gov/data-collection/ncvs
• • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_post-traumatic_stress_disorder
• • https://what3words.com/guitars.record.caps
• • https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/secrets-of-the-great-families
• • https://www.cremieux.xyz/p/whats-the-deal-with-autism-rates
• • https://www.endocrine-abstracts.org/ea/0090/ea0090p69
• • https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
• • https://x.com/AppSpartacus

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Prediction Market FAQ

December 20, 2022 · Original source

- It would be amazing to have the union of Polymarket and Manifold -- a cryptocurrency-based tool for anyone to create markets, resolve markets, browse available markets, and participate in markets. There was a wave of tools that tried to do this five years ago, like Augur and Gnosis, but to my understanding, they basically failed due to Ethereum gas prices making them intractable to use at scale. If someone magically built this on e.g. some kind of Ethereum L2 with manageable fees, it could be The Real Deal for prediction markets that everyone (at least cryptocurrency-literate people) can participate in and which governments can't really shut down. Polymarket isn't this, because Polymarket doesn't let people create and resolve their own markets; it relies on the Polymarket central authority, which can be censored, has limited throughput, and has limited trust. If this tool existed and had a proliferation of markets with 5 or 6 figures of liquidity, imagine how different conversations in rationalist-adjacent spaces about COVID, or AI forecasting, or public policy, would look.

23

April 25, 2023 · Original source

2: Nuno Sempere: Tracking The Money Flows In Forecasting. EG Metaculus runs off of ~$6M in grants; Kalshi has $30M in VC funding. Gnosis, a crypto protocol that never went anywhere, apparently had a $230M market cap at one point, but this is probably some kind of fake crypto valuation trick.

Inline links: Tracking The Money Flows In Forecasting

Backlinks

• 23
• Organizations: G
• Prediction Market FAQ