Karlstack

Article

Karlstack is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 3 times across 3 issues between June 22, 2021 and August 16, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as “Chris of Karlstack says he bet on high inflation on Polymarket”; “Chris of Karlstack writes about his quest”; “Chris from Karlstack notes that this user “has a bad reputation as a troll”“. It most often appears alongside Metaculus, Polymarket, PredictIt.

Metadata

• Category: Organizations
• Mention count: 3
• Issue count: 3
• First seen: June 22, 2021
• Last seen: August 16, 2022

Appears In

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Related Pages

• • Metaculus (3 shared issues)
• • Polymarket (3 shared issues)
• • PredictIt (3 shared issues)
• • Chris (2 shared issues)
• • Insight Prediction (2 shared issues)
• • Kalshi (2 shared issues)
• • Manifold (2 shared issues)
• • US (2 shared issues)
• • 538 (1 shared issues)
• • 538 (1 shared issues)
• • @tnim_ (1 shared issues)
• • AGI (1 shared issues)

External Links

• • http://web.archive.org/web/20221104130431/https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/1m-bet-rules
• • http://web.archive.org/web/20221129133112/https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaim-accepts-500000-challenge-on-covid-vaccine-safety-efficacy/
• • http://web.archive.org/web/20221224061743/https://www.skirsch.com/covid/SaarWilf.pdf
• • https://archive.ph/pY4gF#selection-663.103-683.190
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-low-hanging-fruit-argument-models/comment/5891372
• • https://karlstack.substack.com/p/a-textbook-case-of-regulatory-capture
• • https://karlstack.substack.com/p/exclusive-the-man-who-may-have-milked
• • https://karlstack.substack.com/p/polymarket-prediction-will-inflation
• • https://karlstack.substack.com/p/turning-1000-to-10000-on-insight?s=w
• • https://web.archive.org/web/20230104080248/https://www.rootclaim.com/
• • https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/27/business/media/heather-cox-richardson-substack-boston-college.html

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

21

June 22, 2021 · Original source

Chris of Karlstack says he bet on high inflation on Polymarket (and presumably won, given last month’s data). Matt Yglesias admits he got a previous low inflation prediction wrong (at 90% confidence, no less!). These people are good and deserve praise.

Inline links: Karlstack, admits he got a previous low inflation prediction wrong

22

June 13, 2022 · Original source

3: Chris of Karlstack writes about his quest to dectuple his $1000 investment on prediction markets.

Inline links: Chris of Karlstack writes about

22

August 16, 2022 · Original source

This doesn’t make a lot of sense - if a judge rules in someone’s favor in a lawsuit, it should look like a court order, and it would probably involve PredictIt paying damages or something. How would a lawsuit over an unfair banning make CFTC shut the whole market down? Chris from Karlstack notes that this user “has a bad reputation as a troll” and hasn’t provided any evidence to substantiate his claims.

Inline links: Chris from Karlstack

Chris from Karlstack has what he considers a “smoking gun”: last month, Kalshi filed documents with the CFTC proposing to move into the “who will win elections” market, which PredictIt previously dominated. It’s incredibly suspicious that the CFTC closed down the premier election-focused prediction market just two weeks after the company everyone accuses them of being in the pocket of tried to move into the election-predicting space.

Inline links: filed documents with the CFTC

Backlinks

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