Manifold.love

Article

Manifold.love is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 6 times across 6 issues between November 03, 2023 and June 18, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as “Manifold.love started up a few weeks ago”; “this actually might be Manifold.love’s killer app”; “Manifold.Love added OKCupid-style compatibility questions and match percentage”. It most often appears alongside Manifold, Metaculus, Biden.

Metadata

  • Category: Organizations
  • Mention count: 6
  • Issue count: 6
  • First seen: November 03, 2023
  • Last seen: June 18, 2025

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

November 03, 2023 · Original source
Manifold.love started up a few weeks ago. This isn’t exactly what I want - it doesn’t have the questions/matches, and its text questions are pretty specific and not conducive to getting people to really describe themselves. Still, it’s a clever and well-thought-out dating site that’s probably consuming most of this community’s dating site energy for the near future, and it would be both unwise and unfair to try to compete with it right now.
December 05, 2023 · Original source
Oh, and I almost forgot: Manifold Love: One Month Progress Report A month ago, Manifold founded a dating site, manifold.love. The idea is, you bet on who would be a good match, and make (play) money if they end up having a second date or continuing on to a relationship.
A month ago, Manifold founded a dating site, manifold.love. The idea is, you bet on who would be a good match, and make (play) money if they end up having a second date or continuing on to a relationship.
This actually might be Manifold.love’s killer app. I talked to a user who said their favorite thing about the site was the ability to low-key plausibly-deniably flirt with other users. You buy a couple YES shares in you + them. They see you’re interested and either buy a couple of YES shares themselves, or leave it alone, or buy some NO shares. Then if you both buy YES, you both keep bidding it up until whatever value makes you feel comfortable sending them an intro message.
January 30, 2024 · Original source
I would also add that I joined a different forecasting site, Manifold Markets back in August, and in 3 months have turned the 500 starting ‘Mana’ you get when you sign up into 8500 mana, and have specifically made a point to not do any research and just buy/sell based on intuition. Again, not sure what to conclude here, but it seems very possible that these sites are just full of people who are terrible at predicting things, such that it’s easy to do quite well by just being half-decent.
I've temporarily removed the whole "Add matches" and betting UI for Manifold Love prediction markets. I hope to bring back something a bit better (and more useful!) via an opt-in premium feature.
2: Manifold.Love added OKCupid-style compatibility questions and match percentage, but they got rid of the prediction markets. I can’t say the prediction market feature really worked so well. Still, it’s sad. Site administrator James Grugett says:
February 20, 2024 · Original source
2: TIME: Looking For Love? Let The Market Decide. Profile of Manifold.love
3: Speaking of which, Manifold.love announces their new structure; normal use is free, but for $100 they’ll get you a “guaranteed three dates” by subsidizing a prediction market on who you should go on dates with (if you don’t go on dates with anyone, they’ll refund you the $100).
April 11, 2024 · Original source
— EA job board — EA internships — Dating docs / Manifold.love — Find a Less Wrong/ACX meetup
June 18, 2025 · Original source
Helped create Manifold Markets, a prediction market site with thousands of satisfied users, whose various spinoffs play a central role in the rationalist/EA community.
Manifold.Love, originally an attempt to make a prediction-market-based dating site. I am told this somehow actually worked in a tiny handful of cases and there are some real people who owe their relationships to people betting on a prediction market that they would be compatible. But this didn’t work at scale and it’s now being spun off as a separate dating site focusing on polyamorous people.