Samotsvety Forecasts
Article
Samotsvety Forecasts is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 3 times across 3 issues between March 14, 2022 and October 31, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world”; “superforecaster group Samotsvety Forecasts published their estimate”; “a superforecaster from Samotsvety Forecasts , a leading prediction group”. It most often appears alongside Metaculus, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Kalshi.
Metadata
- Category: Organizations
- Mention count: 3
- Issue count: 3
- First seen: March 14, 2022
- Last seen: October 31, 2023
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Metaculus (3 shared issues)
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- Eliezer Yudkowsky (2 shared issues)
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- Kalshi (2 shared issues)
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- London (2 shared issues)
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- Metaculus Alert bot (2 shared issues)
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- Nikos Bosse (2 shared issues)
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- Polymarket (2 shared issues)
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- Putin (2 shared issues)
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- Richard Hanania (2 shared issues)
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- Robin Hanson (2 shared issues)
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- Russia (2 shared issues)
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- Ukraine (2 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.
Inline links: an absolutely obscene margin
Last month superforecaster group Samotsvety Forecasts published their estimate of the near-term risk of nuclear war, with a headline number of 24 micromorts per week.
Inline links: estimate of the near-term risk of nuclear war
But also, the media is a dignified, official institution, and it prefers interacting with other dignified, official institutions. It likes being able to say “a professor from Harvard said X”, and not “this guy who does really well betting on Manifold says X”. He talked about wanting to quote a superforecaster from Samotsvety Forecasts, a leading prediction group, but expected his editors to ask why these people with the weird Russian name were relevant or trustworthy. It’s easier to cite someone who is “a fellow at the Forecasting Research Institute”, which has the same kind of official ring as “a professor at Harvard”.
Inline links: Samotsvety Forecasts