Nikos Bosse
Article
Nikos Bosse is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 7 times across 7 issues between December 28, 2021 and April 25, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “Nikos Bosse, $5,000, to seed a wiki about forecasting”; “thanks to ACX Grants winner Nikos Bosse for creating it”; “ensemble” outperformed 84-92% of individual models (h/t Nikos Bosse)“. It most often appears alongside Metaculus, Polymarket, Ukraine.
Metadata
- Category: People
- Mention count: 7
- Issue count: 7
- First seen: December 28, 2021
- Last seen: April 25, 2023
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Metaculus (7 shared issues)
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- Polymarket (4 shared issues)
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- Ukraine (4 shared issues)
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- ACX Grants (3 shared issues)
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- Elon Musk (3 shared issues)
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- Good Judgment Project (3 shared issues)
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- London (3 shared issues)
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- Manifold (3 shared issues)
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- Manifold Markets (3 shared issues)
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- Metaculus Alert bot (3 shared issues)
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- Putin (3 shared issues)
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- Russia (3 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
Nikos Bosse, $5,000, to seed a wiki about forecasting. Articles would include technical topics like scoring rules, interviews with superforecasters, and links to existing prediction markets and forecasting platforms. Think the Investopedia or Bogleheads of investing in prediction markets. This is another leg of my "improve forecasting infrastructure" goal area. Nikos is a PhD student working on infectious disease forecasting. If you think you can help with the wiki, email him at nikosbosse@gmail.com.
Inline links: nikosbosse@gmail.com
If you like getting your news in this format, subscribe to the Metaculus Alert bot for more (and thanks to ACX Grants winner Nikos Bosse for creating it!)
Inline links: Metaculus Alert bot
If you like getting your news in this format, subscribe to the Metaculus Alert bot for more (and thanks to ACX Grants winner Nikos Bosse for creating it!)
Inline links: Metaculus Alert bot
If you like getting your news in this format, subscribe to the Metaculus Alert bot for more (and thanks to ACX Grants winner Nikos Bosse for creating it!)
Inline links: Metaculus Alert bot
1: Ensemble models of COVID forecasts: if you aggregate a bunch of COVID forecasts to try to tap the “wisdom of crowds”, do they do better than individual forecasts? If you do a good enough job aggregating, then yes - this paper finds their “ensemble” outperformed 84-92% of individual models (h/t Nikos Bosse).
Inline links: Ensemble models of COVID forecasts
19: A Wiki On Forecasting (4/10) Nikos Bosse reports that the wiki exists - you can find it at https://forecasting.wiki/. He says that he has stalled in the past few months as he pursues other projects, but that it has an active community and he is hoping to get back to it soon.
Inline links: https://forecasting.wiki/
Nikos Bosse compares Metaculus’ performance to its “competitor” Manifold Markets, and finds that overall Metaculus was more accurate: