Swift Centre For Applied Forecasting
Article
Swift Centre For Applied Forecasting is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between July 12, 2022 and March 05, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “The result is the Swift Centre For Applied Forecasting in London”; “has recently been doing some work at the Swift Centre For Applied Forecasting”. It most often appears alongside Metaculus, Samotsvety, 1/6 Committee.
Metadata
- Category: Organizations
- Mention count: 2
- Issue count: 2
- First seen: July 12, 2022
- Last seen: March 05, 2024
Appears In
Related Pages
-
- Metaculus (2 shared issues)
-
- Samotsvety (2 shared issues)
-
- 6 Committee (1 shared issues)
-
- @wc1766 (1 shared issues)
-
- Adam (1 shared issues)
-
- Adam Unikowsky (1 shared issues)
-
- Africa (1 shared issues)
-
- Andrey S (1 shared issues)
-
- Berkshire Hathaway (1 shared issues)
-
- Bitcoin (1 shared issues)
-
- Blind Mode (1 shared issues)
-
- Blind Mode (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
In February, crypto tycoon Sam Bankman-Fried donated $1 billion to the Future Fund, a rationalist-adjacent organization that kickstarts projects promoting the long-term future of humanity. When they couldn’t spend their money fast enough, they deputized friendly experts as “regrantors”, charged with the task of going out and spending their money to start organizations that should exist but don’t. One regrantor must have thought that good forecasting teams were in this category, because it looks like Future Fund spent $2 million making this happen. The result is the Swift Centre For Applied Forecasting in London. They describe themselves as:
Related: Liz Cheney says the Republican Party “can’t survive” nominating Trump in 2024. This is exactly the kind of prediction I anticipate people walking back if they were asked to make it formally. Let’s say “conditional on Trump as 2024 nominee, Republicans won’t get >40% of the vote in either of the 2028 or 2032 presidential elections”. Would Liz Cheney - or anyone else - really take that bet, at any odds? Is there any formulation matching a commonsense notion of “not surviving” they would accept? Swift Centre Veterans For Truth Half of the promise of prediction markets and tournaments is using “the wisdom of crowds” to aggregate forecasts effectively. But the other half of their promise is that markets and tournaments reveal talent. We all know Berkshire Hathaway has good investors and the Golden State Warriors have good basketball players. Maybe we can identify teams of superstar forecasters (forecastars?) and make them available for people who need their services.
Inline links: Liz Cheney says the Republican Party “can’t survive”
The Swift Centre will publish forecasts from a panel of highly experienced and accurate forecasters including Good Judgment Project Superforecasters and financial industry professionals, collated and explained to help you navigate the world.
Leonard B. lives in Oregon, and works in real estate development and asset management. He started forecasting during the pandemic, has qualified as a "superforecaster" since 2022, and has recently been doing some work at the Swift Centre For Applied Forecasting. He's "lbiii" on various forecasting platforms (especially Metaculus) and says "I like to hear about cool projects to get involved in, and am especially keen to connect with folks who are working to make forecasting more visible and decision-relevant to policymakers - reach out to possiblylenny@gmail.com"
Inline links: Swift Centre For Applied Forecasting