Douglas Campbell
Article
Douglas Campbell is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 3 times across 3 issues between March 21, 2022 and March 05, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “The founder of Insight Prediction is Douglas Campbell”; “Douglas Campbell and Abhishek Kylasa of Insight Prediction”; “Douglas Campbell and Abhishek Kylasa of Insight Prediction on predicting war”. It most often appears alongside Insight Prediction, Manifold, Metaculus.
Metadata
- Category: People
- Mention count: 3
- Issue count: 3
- First seen: March 21, 2022
- Last seen: March 05, 2024
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Insight Prediction (3 shared issues)
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- Manifold (3 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (3 shared issues)
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- CFTC (2 shared issues)
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- Democratic National Committee (2 shared issues)
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- Eric Neyman (2 shared issues)
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- Forecasting Research Institute (2 shared issues)
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- Israel (2 shared issues)
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- Polymarket (2 shared issues)
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- Russia (2 shared issues)
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- Sam Marks (2 shared issues)
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- @wc1766 (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
The founder of Insight Prediction is Douglas Campbell, who holds a Ph.D. from the University of California, Davis. He is a former Staff Economist on President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors, and prior to that was a Modelling Analyst in the targeting department of the Democratic National Committee. Currently he is also an Assistant Professor at the New Economic School.
Douglas Campbell and Abhishek Kylasa of Insight Prediction on predicting war.
Inline links: Insight Prediction, predicting war
Douglas Campbell is an economics professor, former member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors, and analyst for the Democratic National Committee. He currently runs Insight Prediction, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market. Despite him owning a prediction market, our questions didn’t overlap with his and he gained no advantage from it. He still got the single highest score of anyone in this tournament.
Inline links: Insight Prediction
Douglas Campbell runs a prediction market, which I guess also makes him non-random, but I hadn’t previously heard of him being an exceptional forecaster himself, so I don’t know how much to weight this. He describes his method as: