Sam Marks
Article
Sam Marks is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 4 times across 4 issues between February 01, 2022 and March 05, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “Sam Marks and Eric Neyman have kindly turned this tradition into a contest”; “Sam Marks and Eric Neyman kindly processed all the data”; “along with amateur statisticians Sam Marks and Eric Neyman”. It most often appears alongside Eric Neyman, Russia, Manifold.
Metadata
- Category: People
- Mention count: 4
- Issue count: 4
- First seen: February 01, 2022
- Last seen: March 05, 2024
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Eric Neyman (4 shared issues)
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- Russia (4 shared issues)
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- Manifold (3 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (3 shared issues)
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- Ukraine (3 shared issues)
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- ACX (2 shared issues)
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- Biden administration (2 shared issues)
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- Bitcoin (2 shared issues)
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- Bongbong Marcos (2 shared issues)
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- Canada (2 shared issues)
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- Democratic National Committee (2 shared issues)
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- Democrats (2 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
Sam Marks and Eric Neyman have kindly turned this tradition into a contest.
Several hundred of you joined me in trying to predict 70ish events this year. Sam Marks and Eric Neyman kindly processed all the data. You can find everything suitable for public release here. If you want the full dataset, including individual-level information about each predictor, you can fill out a request form here.
I know this because last January, along with amateur statisticians Sam Marks and Eric Neyman, I solicited predictions from 508 people. This wasn’t a very creative or free-form exercise - contest participants assigned percentage chances to 71 yes-or-no questions, like “Will Russia invade Ukraine?” or “Will the Dow end the year above 35000?” The whole thing was a bit hokey and constrained - Nassim Taleb wouldn’t be amused - but it had the great advantage of allowing objective scoring.
Special thanks to Sam Marks and Eric Neyman for running the contest.
Then I released the list of 3300 x 50 guesses, and asked people to analyze them with the aggregation algorithm of their choice to produce what they thought was the best possible list. 460 of you took me up on that (“Full Mode”). Then I waited until 2024 and sent everything to Eric Neyman, who’s better at math than I am. He used the Metaculus scoring function to assess everyone’s accuracy. Thanks to Eric (and to Sam Marks, who helped last time around) for taking care of this. II. And The Winners Are . . . For Blind Mode - where you had to rely on your wits alone and couldn’t spend more than five minutes per question - the winners are: Small Singapore gave me no information except this pseudonym and won’t answer any emails. I don’t even know how to give them their prize money. Please email me at scott@slatestarcodex.com if this is you.
Inline links: the Metaculus scoring function