Ezra Karger
Article
Ezra Karger is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 3 times across 3 issues between January 24, 2023 and March 18, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “7th: Ezra Karger. Ezra is research director at the Forecasting Research Institute”; “Ezra Karger is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago”; “Ezra Karger: …is a possible exception to the above claim. He’s a non-random individual - director of the Forecasting Research Institute”. It most often appears alongside Metaculus, Peter Wildeford, ACX.
Metadata
- Category: People
- Mention count: 3
- Issue count: 3
- First seen: January 24, 2023
- Last seen: March 18, 2024
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Metaculus (3 shared issues)
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- Peter Wildeford (3 shared issues)
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- ACX (2 shared issues)
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- Adam (2 shared issues)
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- Eric Neyman (2 shared issues)
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- Forecasting Research Institute (2 shared issues)
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- Manifold (2 shared issues)
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- Russia (2 shared issues)
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- Sam Marks (2 shared issues)
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- @wc1766 (1 shared issues)
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- ACSresearch.org (1 shared issues)
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- ACX Grants (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
7th: Ezra Karger. Ezra is research director at the Forecasting Research Institute. This contest is an amateurish retreading of work that FRI’s Philip Tetlock already did much more formally years ago, and we feel honored that he entered at all. I’m not sure why it should be the case that forecasting researchers are also excellent forecasters, but Ezra has adequately demonstrated this at least in his own case.
Inline links: Forecasting Research Institute
Ezra Karger is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the research director at the Forecasting Research Institute.
Inline links: Forecasting Research Institute
Ezra Karger: …is a possible exception to the above claim. He’s a non-random individual - director of the Forecasting Research Institute - and has previously placed very highly in contests like these (he placed 7th in last year’s ACX contest). Based on this, I suspect his performance was mostly repeatable skill and not just luck. He outscored all but four of our 4,215 Blind Mode and Full Mode participants, which puts him above the 99.9th percentile. Since he entered Full Mode, he was allowed to do complicated technical things, and he described his method as:
My main takeaway is that Metaculus beats prediction markets, superforecasters, wisdom of crowds, and (probably, most of the time) Samotsvety. Based on the performance of last year’s winners, most people who outperform Metaculus do so by luck and will regress to the mean next year. This contest leaves open the possibility that a small number of people (maybe including Ezra Karger) might be able to consistently get super-Metaculus performance - it just takes more than one contest to identify them.
Some other winners from last time have moved up a spot in the new algorithm, including Ezra Karger (1st in Full Mode), Peter Wildeford (2nd in Full Mode) and Adam (1st in Blind Mode). Sorry for the ambiguity, and I’ll try to be more careful next time.