Fred

Article

Fred is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between November 21, 2022 and December 31, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as “By Pulitzer-winning nuclear analyst Fred”; “Fred writes : I don’t actually buy that city rents haven’t gone crazy”. It most often appears alongside China, 1955, 4chan.

Metadata

• Category: People
• Mention count: 2
• Issue count: 2
• First seen: November 21, 2022
• Last seen: December 31, 2025

Appears In

• “Is Wine Fake?” In Asterisk Magazine
• Highlights From The Comments On Vibecession

Related Pages

• • China (2 shared issues)
• • 1955 (1 shared issues)
• • 4chan (1 shared issues)
• • AARP (1 shared issues)
• • Aella (1 shared issues)
• • Alex (1 shared issues)
• • Alex Zavoluk (1 shared issues)
• • Amish (1 shared issues)
• • Aristides (1 shared issues)
• • Asterciskmag.com (1 shared issues)
• • Australia (1 shared issues)
• • Axios (1 shared issues)

External Links

• • http://www.fred4prez.us/home.html
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-government-is-making-telemedicine/comment/14048210
• • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_Jelinek
• • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vilfredo_Pareto
• • https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/geh2g2nKb7Kkp26ze/quantifying-the-global-burden-of-extreme-pain-from-cluster
• • https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
• • https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SUUR0000SA0
• • https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/
• • https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/effective-altruism-has-a-novelty

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

"Is Wine Fake?" In Asterisk Magazine

November 21, 2022 · Original source

The Illogic Of Nuclear Escalation: By Pulitzer-winning nuclear analyst Fred Kaplan. The US has almost 4,000 nuclear weapons. Wouldn’t a few hundred be enough to send the message “don’t mess with us”? Why did we build the others?

Inline links: The Illogic Of Nuclear Escalation:

Highlights From The Comments On Vibecession

December 31, 2025 · Original source

Fred writes:

Inline links: writes

For example, from FRED’s “Real Median Household Income” series (2), from 2000-2024, income grew from $71,790 to $83,730. That’s about a 16.6% increase over 24 years. That’s roughly a 0.6% annual growth rate. If the difference between Chained CPI and CPI is roughly 0.3%/year and real median income growth is ~0.6%/year, then how we measure inflation has a pretty significant impact on how we calculate real income, as well as every inflation adjusted measure we looked at.

And I’m pretty confident that chained CPI is valid, because in the “Real Median Household Income” data from FRED, under notes, it says “Income in 2024 C-CPI-U (2000-2024) and R-CPI-U-RS (pre-2000) adjusted dollars.” Which looks like the pre-2000 numbers are calculated using traditional CPI and the post-2000 numbers are calculated using chained CPI. This is buttressed by the fact that FRED’s chained CPI data only goes back to 2000 (3)

Backlinks

• “Is Wine Fake?” In Asterisk Magazine
• Highlights From The Comments On Vibecession
• People: F