Gregory Lewis

Article

Gregory Lewis is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between June 13, 2022 and August 23, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as “Gregory Lewis on the EA Forum on something I got wrong a few months ago”; “I think he would make an argument something like Gregory Lewis’ Most Small Probabilities Aren’t Pascalian”. It most often appears alongside EA Forum, Elon Musk, The Atlantic.

Metadata

• Category: People
• Mention count: 2
• Issue count: 2
• First seen: June 13, 2022
• Last seen: August 23, 2022

Appears In

• 22
• Book Review: What We Owe The Future

Related Pages

• • EA Forum (2 shared issues)
• • Elon Musk (2 shared issues)
• • The Atlantic (2 shared issues)
• • US (2 shared issues)
• • 80,000 Hours (1 shared issues)
• • abolitionist literature (1 shared issues)
• • AGI (1 shared issues)
• • AI (1 shared issues)
• • AI Alignment (1 shared issues)
• • AI risk (1 shared issues)
• • Ajeya Cotra (1 shared issues)
• • al-Qaeda (1 shared issues)

External Links

• • https://beverlypress.com/2024/05/uptick-in-graffiti-paints-a-bleak-picture/
• • https://biblehub.com/greek/3646.htm
• • https://bjs.ojp.gov/data-collection/ncvs
• • https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/02698811211050556
• • https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/08/31/radicalizing-the-romanceless/
• • https://what3words.com/guitars.record.caps
• • https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/secrets-of-the-great-families
• • https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
• • https://x.com/AppSpartacus

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

22

June 13, 2022 · Original source

4: Gregory Lewis on the EA Forum on something I got wrong a few months ago: rational predictions often update predictably. Related: is Metaculus slow to update? (probably no)

Inline links: rational predictions often update predictably, is Metaculus slow to update

Book Review: What We Owe The Future

August 23, 2022 · Original source

Is this just Pascalian reasoning, where you name a prize so big that it overwhelms any potential discussion of how likely it is that you can really get the prize? MacAskill carefully avoids doing this explicitly, so much so that he (unconvincingly) denies being a utilitarian at all. Is he doing it implicitly? I think he would make an argument something like Gregory Lewis’ Most Small Probabilities Aren’t Pascalian. This isn’t about an 0.000001% chance of affecting 50 quadrillion people. It’s more like a 1% chance of affecting them. It’s not automatically Pascalian reasoning every time you’re dealing with a high-stakes situation!

Inline links: Pascalian reasoning,, Most Small Probabilities Aren’t Pascalian

Backlinks

• Book Review: What We Owe The Future
• 22
• People: G