Astral Codex Ten

al-Qaeda

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al-Qaeda

Article

al-Qaeda is a recurring organization in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 7 times across 7 issues between June 24, 2022 and March 01, 2026. The archive places it in contexts such as “targeting of al-Qaeda”; “the supposed connection between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda was nonexistent”; “al-Qaeda sanctuary of Afghanistan”. It most often appears alongside Ukraine, Afghanistan, China.

Metadata

  • Category: Organizations
  • Mention count: 7
  • Issue count: 7
  • First seen: June 24, 2022
  • Last seen: March 01, 2026

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy
June 24, 2022 · Original source
The War in Afghanistan (2001-2021): a series of UN Resolutions justified, out of self-defence, the US invasion of Afghanistan, overthrow of the Taliban government, and targeting of al-Qaeda, in spite of the failure of nation building when the Taliban returned to Kabul in the midst of the final American withdrawal
The War in Iraq (2003-2011): China, Russia, France, and Germany all opposed the invasion of Iraq and overthrow of the Saddam regime that was sold as a ‘preemptive war’, turns out there were no WMD and the supposed connection between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda was nonexistent.
Get rid of the regime The theory falls apart because citizens still need to overcome the collective action problem; regime elites, almost by definition, benefit from the current regime; regimes prioritise paying for security forces over domestic population; and rival powers come to the rescue. As empirical research clearly shows, sanctions are the most brutal and harmful when they have the least likelihood of success. Step 1 of causing economic hardship certainly succeeds — UN sanctions were associated with an aggregate GDP reduction 25% of GDP per decade; US sanctions were associated with a 13.4% decline over seven years. Beyond the destruction of wealth of innocent citizens, sanctions cause excess deaths due to starvation and brutalising ever more desperate regimes that engage in mass killing to repress domestic protests — six-figure infant deaths in Iraq; 1,000 infant deaths per month in Haiti, 40,000 excess deaths in Venezuela in 2017-2018 alone; 38% of Syrian population unable to meet basic food requirements in 2018. Step 4 of regime change has yet to happen as a result of the harshest sanctions against Cuba since 1959, Iraq since 1998, Syria since 2011, and Venezuela since 2019. The Bush, Clinton, new Bush, and Obama administrations all stuck to a policy of not speaking with adversaries, which is the opposite of achieving foreign policy goals by providing targeted regimes a clear path towards the removal of sanctions. Once again, Hanania shows that there is no American grand strategy — sanctions are used to accomplish domestic political goals rather than foreign policy objectives. Leaders face domestic pressure to ‘do something’ about human rights violations and military aggressions abroad, and short of military intervention, sanctions is the only option beyond words of condemnation. Sanctions are an ‘easy’ option because there will be little to no domestic opposition when all the deaths and economic destruction are out of sight; out of mind. 5. The War On Terror The Bush Years After 9/11, the United States has invaded the al-Qaeda sanctuary of Afghanistan, but also the completely irrelevant Iraq. In the view of grand strategy, war is a means to accomplish national security objectives; in the view of public choice, national security objectives is a means to accomplish war (or at least a large military budget). The post hoc rationalisation of the war on terror rests on three incoherent ideologies: Antiterrorism: disproportional militarised response to terrorist attacks
Your Book Review: The Internationalists
July 01, 2022 · Original source
They argue that the conflict between the West and the Islamic world isn’t really about the specific disagreements, as much as it is that many in the Islamic world reject the intellectual underpinnings that Europe formulated - the New World Order. This goes back to Sayyid Qutb, a leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood and inspiration to Al-Qaeda and ISIS. According to H&S, Qutb’s experience in the West and then interacting with the Nasser government in Egypt led to him rejecting in its entirety the Western conception of states, national sovereignty, and the Peace Pact.
Book Review: What We Owe The Future
August 23, 2022 · Original source
But it is hard to drive humans extinct. MacAskill goes over many different scenarios and shows how they will not kill all humans. Global warming could be very bad, but climate models show that even under the worst plausible scenarios, Greenland will still be fine. Nuclear war could be very bad, but nobody wants to nuke New Zealand, and climate patterns mostly protect it from nuclear winter. Superplagues could be bad, but countries will lock down and a few (eg New Zealand) might hold on long enough for everyone else to die out and the immediate threat of contagion to disappear. MacAskill admits he is kind of playing down bioweapons for pragmatic reasons; apparently al-Qaeda started a bioweapons program after reading scaremongering articles in the Western press about how dangerous bioweapons could be.
Desperately Trying To Fathom The Coffeepocalypse Argument
April 25, 2024 · Original source
But - even granting that there are many cases of both - are these useful? There are many cases of moral panics turning out to be nothing. But there are many other cases of moral panics proving true, or of people not worrying about things they should worry about. People didn’t worry enough about tobacco, and then it killed lots of people. People didn’t worry enough about lead in gasoline, and then it poisoned lots of children. People didn’t worry enough about global warming, OxyContin, al-Qaeda, growing international tension in the pre-WWI European system, etc, until after those things had already gotten out of control and hurt lots of people. We even have words and idioms for this kind of failure to listen to warnings - like the ostrich burying its head in the sand.
Your Book Review: Nine Lives
September 13, 2024 · Original source
Born in 1978, he was 16 when he left the comfort of his Saudi home, learned to fire a mortar, and fought in the battles of the Bosnian War. He and two friends ran a million dollar fraudulent charity to smuggle supplies to the Chechens when he was 18. He was 19 when he swore an oath of allegiance in front of Osama bin Laden, and started making chemical weapons. He was 20 when he got disillusioned with al-Qaeda, left, got caught by the Qatari secret police and became a British informant. He was 24 when he unraveled a plot to release poison gas in the New York subway. And by the time he was 28, due to an embarrassingly stupid leak from the American intelligence agencies, his spying career was over and he was a man in hiding.
The book is also a real page-turner, a spy novel in real life. I will share the most interesting things I learned from this book, but for all the adventure stories, read the original, I really enjoyed it more than most novels.
Inline links: read the original
It is not possible to understand al-Qaeda's strategy without understanding its fixation on fulfilling the prophecies. Creating the preconditions for the arrival of the Mahdi also explained the group's later establishment of affiliates in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and the Maghreb, which along with Afghanistan are the lands of the Five Armies of Jihad prophesied to fight in the epic battles.
SB 1047: Our Side Of The Story
October 10, 2024 · Original source
One of my sources generously interprets Newsom to mean something like “don’t regulate the models, regulate the end applications”. IE if OpenAI trains GPT-5, and then LegalCo fine-tunes it to do paralegal work, leave most of the safety responsibility on LegalCo, not OpenAI. This fails to engage with the motivations behind the bill, which are things like “what if someone uses AI for bioterrorism”? If Meta trains LLaMa-4, and al-Qaeda fine-tunes it for terrorism, instead of regulating it at the Meta-level, we should regulate al-Qaeda? Are we sure al-Qaeda will comply with California regulations? Our side is not sure that even this generous interpretation is very well has been thought through very well.
"All Lawful Use": Much More Than You Wanted To Know
March 01, 2026 · Original source
Mass domestic surveillance of Americans, American companies, and US permanent residents (or for that matter generally their counterparts in other Five Eyes partners – UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) is more complicated. The current law is (roughly) that it’s illegal to seek this kind of data, but legal to “incidentally obtain” it. So for example, if the US was looking for al-Qaeda communications, it might tap a major undersea cable, and if tapping that cable happened to incidentally give it data on millions of Americans, it could keep that data. But after “incidentally obtaining” the data, it may only query the resulting database in a targeted way. So the government might take its trove of citizen data that it “incidentally” collected looking for al-Qaeda, and search for a specific citizen’s history if it thinks (for example) that this citizen might be a spy.
Inline links: generally their counterparts in other Five Eyes partners, may only query the resulting database in a targeted way