Jack
Article
Jack is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 5 times across 5 issues between February 25, 2021 and November 20, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “Make sure people know every single fact about @Jack and what a completely ridiculous person he is”; “J names (eg John, Jack, etc) are so common”; “Jack, Marcus Abramovich, and Michael Wheatly are Manifold leaderboard record holders”. It most often appears alongside Donald Trump, United States, /r/ImaginaryWarhammer.
Metadata
- Category: People
- Mention count: 5
- Issue count: 5
- First seen: February 25, 2021
- Last seen: November 20, 2024
Appears In
- A Modest Proposal For Republicans: Use The Word “Class”
- Initial Conditions
- 23
- Highlights From The Comments On Kidney Donation
- How Did You Do On The AI Art Turing Test?
Related Pages
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- Donald Trump (2 shared issues)
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- United States (2 shared issues)
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- ImaginaryWarhammer (1 shared issues)
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- 19th Century (1 shared issues)
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- 2024: Bullish on Blue (1 shared issues)
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- A.J. (1 shared issues)
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- Modern (1 shared issues)
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- Aceso Under Glass (1 shared issues)
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- ACX (1 shared issues)
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- ACX forecasting contest (1 shared issues)
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- ACX Grant (1 shared issues)
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- Agony In The Garden (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
Insist that working-class people have the right to communicate with each other without interference from upper-class gatekeepers. Make sure people know every single fact about @Jack and what a completely ridiculous person he is, and point out that somehow this is the guy who decides what you're allowed to communicate with your Twitter friends. Every time tech companies censor social media, even if they're censoring left-wing views, call their CEOs in for long and annoying Congressional hearings where you use the words "Silicon Valley elites" a lot.
At the meetup, some people theorized that J names (eg John, Jack, etc) are so common that their holders need to differentiate themselves; instead of being the tenth John in your class, you go by JD or JT. But then how come there are so few JNs, JLs, or JS’s? Some people at the meetup thought those combinations sounded less melodious than “JD”, but I’m not really feeling it. Also, in my birth year, the three most popular male names were Michael, Christopher, and Matthew. How come "M" doesn't have the same initializing allure? How come I don’t know anyone who goes by MD?
NinthCause and SG are Manifold co-founders. Jack, Marcus Abramovich, and Michael Wheatly are Manifold leaderboard record holders. Peter Wildeford is a superforecaster who came near the top in the ACX forecasting contest. Matthew Barnett works in AI forecasting. You all know Eliezer and Zvi. As far as I can tell nobody high up on the YES side is similarly illustrious. But prediction markets are supposed to ensure you don’t have to resort to name-dropping, so how did this go wrong? I was tempted to blame Manifold-specific factors, like the ability to get starting mana instead of putting skin in the game. But real-money markets Polymarket and Kalshi got approximately the same results: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/supercon/roomtemp-superconductor-reported Both reached the 40s to 50s! I think there just wasn’t enough smart money to drown out the people who wanted to bet on an exciting thing being true, or who were unduly influenced by a social media environment optimized to keep their attention by convincing them that an exciting thing was true. I have never claimed prediction markets are always good. All I wrote in the Prediction Market FAQ was that either a prediction market will be good, or you could make lots of free money. In this case, it was the second one. I regret I only made $30. I do hope this situation will improve over time, as over-eager forecasters get burned and dollars flow from dumb money to smarter. [EDIT: I should have included something about Metaculus here, but it’s confusing. I think the most popular Metaculus market was lower because it had stricter resolution criteria (the first replication had to be positive, instead of any replication) but that otherwise Metaculus raw probabilities mirrored everyone else’s. We don’t know how their algorithmically processed probabilities did yet and I’ll report on that information when I get it.] Salem/CSPI Tournament Winners The Salem Center and the Center For The Study Of Partisanship And Ideology, two think tanks associated with right-wing intellectual Richard Hanania, sponsored a prediction market tournament last year. Participants got $1000 in play money to bet on selected markets about current events; winners would be interviewed for a well-paying academic sinecure at one of the think tanks. Now the tournament is over. Winners have yet to be announced, but unofficially, everyone knows who they are: First place out of 999 participants is zubbybadger. Zubby is a prediction market veteran who was featured in a Washington Monthly article last year for his great track record in political betting (he’s made > $150,000 on PredictIt). Now he works as a “community manager” for Kalshi (I don’t know what this entails). Second place was Robert from Considerations On Codecrafting. He’s written a detailed reflection on his experience (part one, part two) which is my main source for this section and highly recommended. He describes himself as “having absolutely no experience with prediction markets”. Third place was Johnny Ten-Numbers, about whom I can find no further information. You can see the rest of the top 20 at the very bottom of this post. Reading Robert’s story of his experience, I’m struck by how little of the competition at the top was about predictive accuracy. Everyone in the top 20 was a very accurate predictor (Exactly equally accurate? Hard to tell.) What separated 1st place from 20th, aside from luck, was things like: Ability to move fast - both in responding to news, and in taking the other side of bad bets. Several top performers programmed bots to give them an edge here.
Inline links: https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PMh_!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1143f4c9-a7f7-4aee-a006-12b1a28bd923_654x389.png, Prediction Market FAQ, selected markets about current events, zubbybadger, featured in a Washington Monthly article last year, Robert, part one, part two, Johnny Ten-Numbers
Gemma Jack writes:
Inline links: writes
In his "The LNT-is-not-inconsistent-with-the-data Argument" post Jack has a graphic of about 30 dose profile cohorts that are prominent in the literature and history. The only ones comparable to 30 mSv acute seem to be the nuclear bomb survivors:
Inline links: The LNT-is-not-inconsistent-with-the-data Argument
This lovely AI image (generated by Jack Galler) almost made it into the test, but I noticed at the last second that the kid had no thumb. Or is the thumb hidden? I’m not sure, but I didn’t want to make it too easy. I also tried to pick human works with a minimum of "tells" that would reveal their humanity without requiring any subtle artistic discrimination. So I stayed away from text (non-garbled text would be a strong sign that a picture was human), complicated wrestling-like poses (AIs mostly can't do these and end up with limbs emerging from nowhere) and pop art (something about the clean lines and replicated images is a bad match for AI's abilities). Again, this makes the test unrepresentative of a world where some art does have these "tells".
This image (AI, generated by Jack Galler) was the best-loved in the competition. Could this be an artifact of poorly chosen pictures? Most of the best-loved AI images were Impressionist; by chance, this category was somewhat AI-dominated in my dataset, so this could just reflect a love of Impressionist paintings (or a particular aptitude for AI in this area). But the human Impressionist painting I included (Entrance To The Village Of Osny, above) was actually quite unpopular. And if we remove all Impressionist paintings, then although humans reclaim the top two spots, an AI is still #3, and the machines still take 40% of the new top ten.
AI. This one was generated by another ACX reader, Jack Galler.
Inline links: Jack Galler