Saar Wilf
Article
Saar Wilf is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 5 times across 5 issues between April 11, 2021 and February 05, 2026. The archive places it in contexts such as “I talked to Saar Wilf of Rootclaim”; “Steve Kirsch did not in fact back out of his bet with Saar Wilf”; “Saar Wilf of Rootclaim and ACX commenter BSP9000 have made a $100,000 bet on COVID origins”. It most often appears alongside Rootclaim, ACX, Saar.
Metadata
- Category: People
- Mention count: 5
- Issue count: 5
- First seen: April 11, 2021
- Last seen: February 05, 2026
Appears In
- Open Thread 167
- Open Thread 263
- Open Thread 283
- Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate
- Links For February 2026
Related Pages
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- Rootclaim (4 shared issues)
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- ACX (2 shared issues)
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- Saar (2 shared issues)
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- Steve Kirsch (2 shared issues)
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- Tyler Cowen (2 shared issues)
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- 4o (1 shared issues)
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- 60 Minutes (1 shared issues)
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- @MattZeitlin (1 shared issues)
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- @MMJukic (1 shared issues)
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- @Poltfan69 (1 shared issues)
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- @tenobrus (1 shared issues)
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- @TheMidasProj (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
4: After writing my post concluding Vitamin D probably does not treat coronavirus, some people suggested I make a bet with Rootclaim, who is offering to bet $100,000 that Vitamin D does cure coronavirus. I talked to Saar Wilf of Rootclaim, who was very helpful and responsive, and we had a good discussion about the evidence in favor and against. The result: Saar convinced me to shift from a 75% probability that Vitamin D doesn’t work to more like a 66-70% probability; I convinced Saar to back off from his previous betting terms that scientists would soon acknowledge Vitamin D worked better than steroids or remesdevir (not because he thought Vitamin D didn’t work, just because science isn’t self-correcting enough to change its mind that quickly or conclusively, which I agree with). We tried to come up with some other agreeable set of terms, but weren’t able to make something work given my relatively high level of loss aversion. Overall I came out of the discussion with a high level of respect for Saar, and I’d like to investigate Rootclaim further at some point.
2: Correction from last week’s links: Steve Kirsch did not in fact back out of his bet with Saar Wilf; although they briefly reached an impasse, they’ve solved it and plan to go forward with the debate. I’m not sure if this is a good truth-finding method, but I’m intrigued by it and will probably cover it when it happens.
Inline links: go forward with the debate
3: Saar Wilf of Rootclaim and ACX commenter BSP9000 have made a $100,000 bet on COVID origins (lab leak vs. natural). They’re looking for judges to moderate. You would have to listen to/read both of their arguments and come to a conclusion. If you’re knowledgeable, unbiased, and have a good reputation for honesty, and would be willing to help (they will compensate you for your time), message them here.
Inline links: Rootclaim, looking for judges to moderate
Saar Wilf is an ex-Israeli entrepreneur. Since 2016, he’s been developing a new form of reasoning, meant to transcend normal human bias.
5: Related: Rootclaim founder Saar Wilf on Destiny, discussing lab leak and probabilistic inference.
Inline links: Rootclaim founder Saar Wilf on Destiny