Astral Codex Ten

Sanders

7 min read

Sanders

Article

Sanders is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 4 times across 4 issues between March 04, 2021 and December 31, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as “The specifics of Sanders’ supposed sellout”; “I wondered if maybe Sanders or Warren or O’Rourke would win”; “3. Sanders wins 2020: 10%“. It most often appears alongside Trump, Biden, China.

Metadata

  • Category: People
  • Mention count: 4
  • Issue count: 4
  • First seen: March 04, 2021
  • Last seen: December 31, 2025

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Highlights From The Comments On March Links
March 04, 2021 · Original source
shambibble on Sanders and class-first leftism:
Inline links: shambibble
Any sold-out-on-wokeness hypothesis for why the Sanders campaign failed has to grapple with several issues:
- Why New Bernie did so much better in Nevada in 2020 (with a much more diverse base). The article claims that caucuses "place a premium on ground-level organizing, where Sanders excelled." But this is not a distinction since Nevada was also a caucus in 2016 and the failures in 2020 South Carolina are being alleged at that same level, not that Bernie ran bad television ads or failed to show up.
Mantic Monday: Grading My Trump Predictions
April 19, 2021 · Original source
Normally I would give myself an A+ on this prediction, but the post went on to take some digs at Bernie Sanders for actually having a disproportionately white support base. This was true in 2015 - 2016, but he picked up a lot of minority support over the next few years, and going into 2020 his base was as diverse as anybody else's. I don't think I was really making a prediction here, but insofar as I was, it was falsified. So overall I will give this post an A-.
1. Donald Trump remains president at end of year: 95% 2. Democrats take control of the House in midterms: 80% ***3. Democrats take control of the Senate in midterms: 50% ***4. Mueller’s investigation gets cancelled (eg Trump fires him): 50% 5. Mueller does not indict Trump: 70% ***6. PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of year: 60% 7. PredictIt shows Donald Trump having highest chance to be GOP nominee at end of year: 95% 8. [This was missing in original] ***9. Some sort of major immigration reform legislation gets passed: 70% 10. No major health-care reform legislation gets passed: 95% 11. No large-scale deportation of Dreamers: 90% 12. US government shuts down again sometime in 2018: 50% 13. Trump’s approval rating lower than 50% at end of year: 90% ***14. …lower than 40%: 50% ***15. GLAAD poll suggesting that LGBQ acceptance is down will mostly not be borne out by further research: 80%
1. Donald Trump remains President: 90% 2. Donald Trump is impeached by the House: 40% ***3. Kamala Harris leads the Democratic field: 20% ***4. Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field: 20% 5. Joe Biden leads the Democratic field: 20% ***6. Beto O’Rourke leads the Democratic field: 20% 7. Trump is still leading in prediction markets to be Republican nominee: 70% 8. Polls show more people support the leading Democrat than the leading Republican: 80% 9. Trump’s approval rating below 50: 90% ***10. Trump’s approval rating below 40: 50%</s> ***11. Current government shutdown ends before Feb 1: 40% 12. Current government shutdown ends before Mar 1: 80% 13. Current government shutdown ends before Apr 1: 95% ***14. Trump gets at least half the wall funding he wants from current shutdown: 20% 15. Ginsberg still alive: 50%
Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023
February 20, 2023 · Original source
On the other hand, everyone will have underestimated the extent of crisis in the Democratic Party. The worst-case scenario is Kamala Harris rising to the main contender against Bernie Sanders in the 2020 primary. Bernie attacks her and her followers as against true progressive values, bringing up her work defending overcrowded California prisons as a useful source of unpaid labor. Harris supporters attack Bernie as a sexist white man trying to keep a woman of color down (wait until the prison thing gets described as “slavery”). Everything that happened in 2016 between Clinton and Sanders looks like mild teasing between friends in comparison. If non-Sanderites rally around Booker or Warren instead, the result will be slightly less apocalyptic but still much worse than anyone expects. The only plausible way I can see for the Dems to avoid this is if Sanders dies or becomes too sick to run before 2020. This could tear apart the Democratic Party in the long-term, but in the short term it doesn’t even mean they won’t win the election – it will just mean a bunch of people who loathe each other temporarily hold their nose and vote against Trump.
1. Trump wins 2020: 20% 2. Republicans win Presidency in 2020: 40% 3. Sanders wins 2020: 10% 4. Democrats win Presidency in 2020: 60% 5. At least one US state has approved single-payer health-care by 2023: 70% 6. At least one US state has de facto decriminalized hallucinogens: 20% 7. At least one US state has seceded (de jure or de facto): 1% 8. At least 10 members of 2022 Congress from neither Dems or GOP: 1% 9. US in at least new one major war (death toll of 1000+ US soldiers): 40% 10. Roe v. Wade substantially overturned: 1% 11. At least one major (Obamacare-level) federal health care reform bill passed: 20% 12. At least one major (Brady Act level) federal gun control bill passed: 20% 13. Marijuana legal on the federal level (states can still ban): 40% 14. Neoliberals will be mostly Democrat/evenly split/Republican in 2023: 60%/20%/20% 15. Political polarization will be worse/the same/better in 2023: 50%/30%/20%
Highlights From The Comments On Vibecession
December 31, 2025 · Original source
I appreciate this guide to the original intent of the word, but I claim ‘death of the author’ - it seems to me this is more than just a two-year problem. I remember people complaining about hellworld, the broken social contract, the Boomers tearing up the bridge behind them, vanishing opportunities for the young, the blackpill of modern life, etc, well before 2022. Memory can be faulty, but don’t we need something like this to explain the Trump campaign, the Sanders campaign, Chapo Trap House, Red Scare, 4chan, and all the other mid-2010s politicians and media telling us that things were worse than they’d ever been and outrage was the only acceptable response?
> “There is one anomaly, which is that I remember people complaining about the bad economy and the Boomers and hellworld since well before 2020 (consider the Trump and Sanders campaigns), but the official vibes didn’t crash until COVID. Is my memory faulty?”