Astral Codex Ten

Yglesias

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Yglesias

Article

Yglesias is a recurring person in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 6 times across 6 issues between March 15, 2021 and February 27, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as “Metaculus asked Yglesias for permission to put some of the predictions up on their platform”; “Yglesias and Metaculus agree on most things”; “If I were Yglesias, I would have ended the inflation post”. It most often appears alongside Matt, Matt Yglesias, California.

Metadata

  • Category: People
  • Mention count: 6
  • Issue count: 6
  • First seen: March 15, 2021
  • Last seen: February 27, 2025

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y
March 15, 2021 · Original source
...until recently! As far as I know, the first official journalists to do something like this were Dylan Matthews, Kelsey Piper and Sigal Samuel at Vox. They're trying again this year, but now they're joined by a pretty big name in traditional punditry - Matt Yglesias, formerly of Vox, now here at Substack. In theory you can read the relevant post here, but it’s paywalled. We'll start with the predictions themselves, then talk about what this means for journalism. Here are the questions to be predicted:
Inline links: Dylan Matthews, Kelsey Piper and Sigal Samuel at Vox, trying again this year, here
What you really want is to have everyone answering the same questions. But that's not really what punditry is about. I don't even know what an "Apple Silicon" is, I don't claim to understand it, and my work as a blogger doesn't involve making any predictions about it. I will fail all questions that involve pontificating on "Apple Silicon", and that's fine. But that means you can't ask me and Matt Yglesias to answer the same set of questions to decide which of us is a "better pundit". In fact, you don't want to do this - part of being a good pundit is knowing what your areas of expertise are, and limiting yourself to them.
This doesn't quite capture everything we want from punditry. It's possible to imagine a version of Matt Yglesias who's usually wrong about testable claims (or at least no righter than the markets) but still does great work doing things like explaining why on-paper wealth statistics aren't accurate. Also, we should cherish people who are often extremely wrong but occasionally right when nobody else is; these people would lose a lot of money, but still introduce important ideas to the conversation.
Inline links: cherish people who are often extremely wrong but occasionally right when nobody else is
Predictions For 2022
February 01, 2022 · Original source
These next two sections are based on Vox’s 22 Predictions For 2022 and and Matt Yglesias’ predictions in his Predictions Are Hard post. In both cases, inspired by Zvi, I’ve given the original predictor’s estimate, then either stuck with it, or bought/sold to some other level. This is kind of unfair, because I get to see the original predictor’s thoughts and they don’t get to see mine - also, I’m a few weeks later than they are, and in a few cases that gives me extra knowledge. So:
Inline links: 22 Predictions For 2022, Predictions Are Hard
YGLESIAS PREDICTIONS 1. Democrats lose both houses of Congress (90%) HOLD 2. Democrats lose at least two Senate seats (80%) HOLD 3. Democrats lose fewer than six Senate seats (80%) HOLD 4. Nancy Pelosi announces retirement plans (70%) HOLD 5. Stephen Breyer does not retire (60%) N/A 6. Some version of Build Back Better passes (60%) HOLD 7. Joe Biden is still president (90%) HOLD 8. At least one Biden cabinet-rank official resigns (70%) HOLD 9. No military conflict between the PRC and Taiwan (a worryingly low 90%) HOLD 10. New U.S. sanctions on Russia (70%) HOLD 11. Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations (60%) SELL to 50% 12. Fewer U.S. Covid deaths in 2022 than in 2021 (80%) BUY to 90% 13. Emmanuel Macron re-elected (60%) HOLD 14. Traffic light coalition exploits loopholes to get around the constitutional debt brake (70%) HOLD 15. No recession in 2021 (90%) SELL to 80% 16. Liz Cheney loses primary (80%) HOLD 17. Some version of USICA passes Congress (70%) HOLD 18. Lula elected president of Brazil (60%) SELL to 50% 19. China officially abandons Covid Zero (70%) HOLD 20. Fewer U.S. Covid-19 deaths in 2022 than in 2020 (80%) BUY to 90% 21. Additional booster shots of mRNA vaccines authorized for seniors (80%) HOLD 22. November 2022 year-on-year CPI growth is below 6% (70%) BUY to 80% 23. November 2022 year-on-year CPI growth is above 4% (70%) SELL to 50% 24. The Fed ends up doing more than its currently forecast three interest rate hikes (60%) HOLD 25. Russia does not invade Ukraine (60%) HOLD 26. Viktor Orbán loses power in Hungary (60%) HOLD 27. Sinn Fein becomes the largest party in the Northern Ireland assembly (60%) HOLD 28. The U.S. and Canada reach an agreement on softwood lumber (70%) HOLD 29. Democrats go down at least one governor on net (60%) HOLD 30. The unemployment rate stays between 4 and 5% (70%) SELL to 60% if you mean 12/22, to 40% if you mean it never gets outside that range at all
Yglesias is mostly forecasting things he understands much better than I do, so I’m mostly holding. I’ll go hard on “fewer US COVID deaths in 2022 than previous years” because Omicron seems less deadly and there’s less “dry tinder” of unvaccinated people; I could be wrong if a non-Omicron lineage spits out a really severe new variant. I’m pretty confused by Matt predicting high inflation for next year; my understanding is the Fed and markets predict lower; I totally admit Matt knows more about inflation than I do but in order to make things interesting I’ll bet against him anyway. I’m equally confused about his prediction of a pretty narrow band of unemployment rates; if I understand right, last month was already outside his band (3.9%) and so he’s betting no future month will repeat that. Again, Matt knows more econ than I do but I’ve sold anyway.
Highlights From The Comments On The Central Valley
October 13, 2022 · Original source
Yglesias recently wrote this about immigration policy:
Change My Mind: Density Increases Local But Decreases Global Prices
May 01, 2023 · Original source
Matt Yglesias tries to debunk the claim that building more houses raises local house prices. He presents several studies showing that, at least on the marginal street-by-street level, this isn’t true.
Inline links: tries to debunk, several studies
But doesn’t induced demand violate the economic law of supply and demand? Or doesn’t it (as Yglesias argues) allow an economic perpetual motion machine, where you just keep building houses and generate infinity money as the price of each keeps going up?
Inline links: allow an economic perpetual motion machine
Highlights From The Comments On Nietzsche
August 08, 2024 · Original source
And Matt Yglesias on Twitter:
Inline links: on Twitter
I don't see Matt Yglesias's points as summarized by Scott as much of a compromise. It's still *almost* pure Second Form Slave Morality stuff, even if radical SJWs and commies are purer.
[original post here]
Inline links: here
Links For February 2025
February 27, 2025 · Original source
And related Yglesias: