Astral Codex Ten

Greenland

8 min read

Greenland

Article

Greenland is a recurring place in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 6 times across 6 issues between October 20, 2021 and January 13, 2026. The archive places it in contexts such as “most likely to die of extreme heat in Greenland”; “climate models show that even under the worst plausible scenarios, Greenland will still be fine”; “lead pollution that makes it to Greenland ice cores”. It most often appears alongside China, AI, America.

Metadata

  • Category: Places
  • Mention count: 6
  • Issue count: 6
  • First seen: October 20, 2021
  • Last seen: January 13, 2026

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Chilling Effects
October 20, 2021 · Original source
People are most likely to die of extreme cold in Sub-Saharan Africa, and most likely to die of extreme heat in Greenland, Norway, and various very high mountains. You’re reading that right - the cold deaths are centered in the warmest areas, and vice versa.
This has got to all be wrong, right? 10% of Africans freezing to death, a substantial number of Greenlanders dying of the heat? The paper doesn’t have any answers. It just presents its mathematical model and runs away. So what’s going on?
Okay, but why are cold-related deaths most common in Africa? And why are heat-related deaths most common in Greenland?
Book Review: What We Owe The Future
August 23, 2022 · Original source
But it is hard to drive humans extinct. MacAskill goes over many different scenarios and shows how they will not kill all humans. Global warming could be very bad, but climate models show that even under the worst plausible scenarios, Greenland will still be fine. Nuclear war could be very bad, but nobody wants to nuke New Zealand, and climate patterns mostly protect it from nuclear winter. Superplagues could be bad, but countries will lock down and a few (eg New Zealand) might hold on long enough for everyone else to die out and the immediate threat of contagion to disappear. MacAskill admits he is kind of playing down bioweapons for pragmatic reasons; apparently al-Qaeda started a bioweapons program after reading scaremongering articles in the Western press about how dangerous bioweapons could be.
Against Ice Age Civilizations
March 03, 2023 · Original source
In theory, this could suggest that no ancient civilization reached a tech level where it started mining lead, ie the tech level the Phoenicians had in 1000 BC. This is in theory only, because I can’t find a clear record of anyone checking. I assume ice core scientists would have noticed if it happened, but there’s no publicly available dataset with lead levels 10,000 years before present, nor is there a paper titled “We Checked To See If There Were Anthropogenic Lead Emissions In 10,000 BC And There Definitely Weren’t”. Here is a paper that looks at lead level in human bones. They don’t do a great job explaining how lead makes it into human bones, but it seems like a mix of the kind of lead pollution that makes it to Greenland ice cores, plus personally wearing or consuming things that have touched lead. This study investigates skeletons from 12,000 BC onwards, and finds that lead levels start rising in 5,000 BC, when people developed “cupellation”, a technique for using lead to purify gold and silver (it then goes up much further between 1000 - 500 BC, probably the same spike the Greenland cores found). So this presents some very weak evidence against significantly elevated lead from 12,000 BC onward. But it doesn’t rule out small amounts of lead mining far away from the bones’ previous owners, and doesn’t rule out a civilization lasting from 15,000 - 13,000 BC. A Great Britain-level civilization would be expected to raise lead levels a lot, and this pretty strongly rules it out. I would expect an Egypt-level civilization to at least invent cupellation, but I don’t know if its lead would necessarily make it to wherever these bones came from. A Stonehenge or Gobekli Tepe level civilization isn’t ruled out at all. Conclusion I think there’s pretty strong evidence against lost Egypt- or Great Britain- level Ice Age civilizations. I don’t want to rule out a lost Stonehenge or Gobekli Tepe level civilization, but there’s not much positive evidence, and there’s some negative evidence. Stonehenge was built by Neolithic farmer-pastoralists, who had lots of domesticated crops and animals. Gobekli Tepe was built right next to the area where wheat was domesticated at around the same time. Existing early monuments mostly suggest a story where sedentary city- and temple- building civilizations either require domesticated agriculture, or invent it very quickly. None of this means Ice Age people didn’t have fascinating cultures of their own which were advanced in other ways - interesting laws, taboos, mythologies, customs, oral traditions. Tyler Cowen says that everything started earlier than you think, and this is what we’ve been finding about various forms of human culture too (cf. Against The Grain, The Dawn Of Everything). I just don’t expect lost Ice Age cities or giant monuments. I think Michael Shermer’s attempt to argue the same case is weak, relies on a still-controversial rejection of the Younger Dryas Impact Hypothesis, and generally leans too much on the absurdity heuristic without moving the needle one way or the other. All of the following predictions are about structures on Earth built by homo sapiens without time travel: 20% chance we ever find something demonstrating equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, dating from before 11,000 BC.
Inline links: Here is a paper, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SS8H!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b5de41a-38d8-4145-821d-5e2f6d2de228_534x215.png, Against The Grain, The Dawn Of Everything, Michael Shermer’s attempt to argue the same case, Younger Dryas Impact Hypothesis
Book Review: The Arctic Hysterias
April 06, 2023 · Original source
This experience has occurred rather commonly to Greenland Eskimos and is called Kayak-Angst, Kayak-Dread, or kayak phobia. As many as ten to fifteen percent of all hunters in Greenland at the turn of the century suffered this malady . . . The condition has been compared to “break-off” which occurs in jet pilots who lose perception of reference points while flying at high altitude […]
The fear of death by drowning is of constant concern to the Eskimo, and with good reason. Between 1901 and 1930 there were 1023 deaths by accident in Greenland; eight percent were due to drowning and ninety-four percent of these were kayak accidents.
In 1911, explorer Harry Whitney described a case of Arctic hysteria in Greenland:
The Ozempocalypse Is Nigh
March 12, 2025 · Original source
Some people are stocking up. GLP-1 drugs keep pretty well in a fridge for at least a year. If you sign up for four GLP-1 telehealth compounding companies simultaneously and order three months from each, then you can get twelve months of medication. Maybe in twelve months the FDA will change their mind, or the pharmacies’ insane legal strategies will pay off, or Trump will invade Denmark over Greenland and seize the Novo Nordisk patents as spoils of war, or someone will finally figure out a diet that works.
Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls
January 13, 2026 · Original source
A California union has announced a campaign to force a 2026 ballot proposition that levies a “one time” wealth tax on billionaires; the mere threat of this tax has spooked several billionaires, including Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, into leaving the state (the initiative would apply to anyone residing in California as of 1/1/2026, so there’s incentive for them to leave proactively). The markets above are the first attempts I’ve seen to estimate the chance of it actually passing. Trump Greenland market; went way up upon Maduro capture and subsequent reignition of the discussion. Lest you worry that this is only tracking the chance of getting a military base or some other small acquisition, the creator specified that:
Inline links: leaving the state
Trump Greenland market; went way up upon Maduro capture and subsequent reignition of the discussion. Lest you worry that this is only tracking the chance of getting a military base or some other small acquisition, the creator specified that:
…this market is about whether Greenland or a meaningful portion of it becomes part of America, not about minor acquisitions like a single building or small plot of land.