Astral Codex Ten

PRC

6 min read

PRC

Article

PRC is a recurring place in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between February 01, 2022 and June 07, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “No military conflict between the PRC and Taiwan”; “maybe an immigrant, if we don’t trust the ones still in the PRC”. It most often appears alongside China, Taiwan, 2022 Winter Olympics.

Metadata

  • Category: Places
  • Mention count: 2
  • Issue count: 2
  • First seen: February 01, 2022
  • Last seen: June 07, 2023

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Predictions For 2022
February 01, 2022 · Original source
US/WORLD 1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than fifty percent: 40% 2. At least $250 million in damage from a single round of mass protests in US: 10% 3. PredictIt thinks Joe Biden is most likely 2024 Dem nominee: 80% 4: …thinks Donald Trump is most likely 2024 GOP nominee: 60% 5. Beijing Olympics happen successfully on schedule: 99% 6. Major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict: 50% 7. Major flare-up (worse past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict: 5% 8. Major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict: 5% 9. Honduran ZEDEs legally crippled to the point where no reasonable person would invest in them further: 5% 10. New ZEDE approved in Honduras: 30%
COVID 22. Fewer than 10K daily average official COVID cases in US in December 2022: 20% 23. Fewer than 50K daily average COVID cases worldwide in December 2022: 1% 24. >66% US population fully vaccinated (by current standards) against COVID: 70% 25. India's official case count is higher than US: 5% 26. Medical establishment reverses course and officially says any of Vitamin D, HCQ, or ivermectin is actually effective against COVID: 1% 27: FDA approves a COVID indication for fluvoxamine: 60% 28. Some new variant not currently known is greater than 25% of cases: 60% 29. Most people I see in the local grocery store 12/31/22 are wearing masks: 60% 30. Masks still required on domestic flights: 60% 31. CDC recommends that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax: 70% 32. China has fewer than 100,000 COVID cases this year (official estimate): 30%
VOX PREDICTIONS 1. Democrats will lose their majorities in the House and Senate (95%): SELL TO 90% 2. Inflation in the US will average under three percent (80%): HOLD 3. Unemployment in the US will fall below four percent by November (80%): SELL to 60% if they mean in November, otherwise hold 4. Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade (65%): SELL to 60% 5. Stephen Breyer will retire from the Supreme Court (55%): N/A 6. Emmanuel Macron will be reelected president of France (65%): HOLD 7. Jair Bolsonaro will be reelected president of Brazil (55%): SELL to 50% 8. Bongbong Marcos will be elected president of the Philippines (55%): BUY to 60% 9. Rebels will not capture Addis Ababa (55%): N/A 10. China will not reopen its borders in the first half of 2022 (80%): BUY to 90% 11. Chinese GDP will continue to grow for the first 3/4 of the year (95%): SELL to 90% 12. 20% of US kids between 0.5 and 5 years old will get at least one COVID vaccine by year's end (65%): HOLD 13. WHO will designate another Variant Of Concern by year's end (75%): HOLD 14. 12 billion COVID shots will be given out globally by 11/2022 (80%): HOLD 15. At least one country will have less than 10% of people vaccinated with two shots by 11/2022 (70%): BUY to 95% 16. A psychedelic drug will be decriminalized/legalized in at least one more US state (75%): HOLD 17. AI will discover a new drug promising enough for clinical trials (85%): HOLD 18. US govt will not renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research (60%): HOLD 19. The Biden administration will set the social cost of carbon at $100/ton or more (70%): HOLD 20. 2022 will be warmer than 2021 (80%): HOLD 21. Kenneth Branagh's Belfast will win Best Picture (55%): SELL to 30% 22. Norway will win the most medals at the 2022 Winter Olympics (60%): HOLD
Assistant Dictator Book Club: America Against America
June 07, 2023 · Original source
The year was 1988. A decade earlier, Deng Xiaoping had announced plans for China to liberalize. The first sparks of capitalism had been kindled. The CCP wanted to fan those sparks into economic superpowerdom. But the only country with experience being an economic superpower, the United States, was as inscrutable to China as China is to us.
Another result: a career boost for Wang Huning. He got asked to head the Party’s “political research” office, then gradually rose higher and higher through the ranks. Today he’s considered the CCP’s chief intellectual, and has been called the second most powerful man in China (alternately “the most influential man in China”). He’s used his position to push China against American values and towards a sort of anti-Western cultural conservatism. Whatever he saw during those six months in Iowa must have scared him hard. I thought I would pick up America Against America to figure out what it was.
Inline links: the second most powerful man in China, the most influential man in China
My guess would be different from any of his: I think China in the 1980s was a developing society with low state capacity - or rather, lots of state capacity at forcing everyone to move to communal farms and starve to death, but less state capacity at monitoring exactly what speed people could drive at. As countries get richer, law enforcement becomes easier, and increasingly-demanding citizens agitate harder for regulations that improve their quality of life.