Astral Codex Ten

Academy Awards

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Academy Awards

Article

Academy Awards is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between March 18, 2021 and February 01, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as “winner of the Academy Awards is probably going to be from a coastal liberal secular background”; “checked the betting markets for the Academy Awa”; “betting markets for the Academy Awards”. It most often appears alongside China, Democrats, France.

Metadata

  • Category: Events
  • Mention count: 2
  • Issue count: 2
  • First seen: March 18, 2021
  • Last seen: February 01, 2022

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Book Review: The New Sultan
March 18, 2021 · Original source
In the course of normal politics, culture, or almost anything else, the elites will always end out on top. This flirts with tautology - of course whoever ends up on top will be a member of the elite! - but on a deeper level it isn't - the populace and elites are different social classes and cultures, so this claim identifies a particular class/culture that always gets its way. The American equivalent might be pointing out that the winner of the Academy Awards is probably going to be from a coastal liberal secular background, and not an evangelical Protestant from Nebraska. Same for the Dean of Harvard, the editor of the New York Times, etc.
Predictions For 2022
February 01, 2022 · Original source
While I agree things don’t look good for the Democrats, 95% chance they lose both houses of Congress implies 97.5% chance of losing each house, which seems too high. I’m smashing the BUY button as hard as I can on “at least one country will fail to get to 10% vaccination rate” - there are a lot of countries, and as far as I know North Korea is refusing all vaccines out of general evilness. Although I’m not supposed to check betting markets, Dylan writes that he checked the betting markets for the Academy Awards, saw a 30% chance that Belfast would win, but he thinks the number is more like 55%. I know nothing about movies, but where markets and a puny mortal disagree I’ll go with the market. I’ve rated a few options N/A because they’ve already resolved or had big updates since Vox made their predictions.
These next two sections are based on Vox’s 22 Predictions For 2022 and and Matt Yglesias’ predictions in his Predictions Are Hard post. In both cases, inspired by Zvi, I’ve given the original predictor’s estimate, then either stuck with it, or bought/sold to some other level. This is kind of unfair, because I get to see the original predictor’s thoughts and they don’t get to see mine - also, I’m a few weeks later than they are, and in a few cases that gives me extra knowledge. So:
Inline links: 22 Predictions For 2022, Predictions Are Hard