West Bank
Article
West Bank is a recurring place in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 3 times across 3 issues between July 08, 2022 and December 05, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “settlements in the West Bank and transition towards self-governance for inhabitants”; “like they’re occupying the West Bank”; “as something like a West Bank without settlements and roadblocks”. It most often appears alongside Gaza, Israel, Aella.
Metadata
- Category: Places
- Mention count: 3
- Issue count: 3
- First seen: July 08, 2022
- Last seen: December 05, 2023
Appears In
Related Pages
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- Gaza (3 shared issues)
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- Israel (3 shared issues)
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- Aella (2 shared issues)
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- Berkeley (2 shared issues)
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- Biden (2 shared issues)
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- CFTC (2 shared issues)
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- Hamas (2 shared issues)
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- Kalshi (2 shared issues)
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- Manifold (2 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (2 shared issues)
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- Middle East (2 shared issues)
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- Polymarket (2 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
Anyway, after two weeks of nonstop conversation between the three countries’ teams—during which negotiations almost fail more than once—they reach a deal. Essentially, the broad outlines are: 1) Egypt will officially recognize Israel and end the state of war between the two countries and 2) Israel will stop building settlements in the West Bank and transition towards self-governance for inhabitants of both the West Bank and Gaza [3]. The Camp David Accords, as they’re known, are a phenomenal success, putting the region on a path straight to the utopia it is today: a prosperous, conflict-free Middle East in which democracy and human rights flourish and the Palestinian people have full self-determination.
I can’t find any markets on the Middle East topic I’m actually interested in, which is Israel’s medium-term plan. Will they kill some Hamas leaders, then get out? Install a puppet government? Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank? These all seem like bad options, but they’re very different bad options, and I haven’t seen much speculation about which is most likely.
The best realistic medium-term outcome I can imagine for the people of Gaza is as something like a West Bank without settlements and roadblocks. I don’t see them as getting independence (Israel won’t allow it medium-term). Hamas rule means perpetual blockade and intermittent warfare. But the West Bank has reached a stalemate where it's at least somewhat not a prison. And Israel's previous commitment not to do settlements in Gaza (if maintained) would make a West-Bank-style Gaza better off than the real West Bank.