Astral Codex Ten

Middle East

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Middle East

Article

Middle East is a recurring place in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 23 times across 23 issues between February 03, 2021 and March 03, 2026. The archive places it in contexts such as “fewer oil tankers leaving the Middle East”; “In 1600, India, the Middle East, and Africa all had their native traditions of manufacturing”; “Argentina and Egypt, limiting their influence in South America and the Middle East”. It most often appears alongside China, Germany, Russia.

Metadata

  • Category: Places
  • Mention count: 23
  • Issue count: 23
  • First seen: February 03, 2021
  • Last seen: March 03, 2026

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Dynamical Systems
February 03, 2021 · Original source
These are benevolent aliens, and they want us to be happy, so they wonder how to prevent recessions. Sometime during the 1970s, they notice that during a recession, there are fewer oil tankers leaving the Middle East, and longer lines at First World gas stations. They know enough chemistry to realize that oil is a pretty useful fuel at our stage of technological development, so they deduce that the recession is caused by an oil shortage. This seems solveable! Using their Materialization Ray, they cause one billion barrels of crude oil to appear on the White House lawn.
If aliens tried to model the economy the same way Borsboom et al are modeling the mind, they’d fail. They could pick ten important economic indicators – maybe employment rate, the S&P 500, inflation, and a few other things – and track how they co-evolved over time. This would probably be illuminating – for all I know some economist in our world is doing it already and learning a lot. But it wouldn’t be enough. They would never be able to predict a recession caused by conflict in the Middle East causing an oil embargo causing an energy shortage. Or a recession caused by deregulation of banks causing them to offer too many subprime loans causing all of them to go belly-up at once. They wouldn’t be able to predict whether government policy would shorten a recession or make it worse, whether international trade could help prop up a collapsing country or drag it further down.
Book Review: Global Economic History
April 21, 2021 · Original source
Soon the world was flooded with cheap British goods, and everywhere else's manufacturing industries collapsed. In 1600, India, the Middle East, and Africa all had their native traditions of manufacturing. These might not have been giant factories, but people were making textiles, iron, tools, weapons, etc at various levels of sophistication. They all disappeared as Britain outcompeted them: "In Bihar [India], the share of the work force in manufacturing dropped from 22% around 1810 to 9% in 1901." These regions switched back to farming, especially growing crops that British people wanted.
Your Book Review: The Accidental Superpower
May 21, 2021 · Original source
American foreign policy comes off looking surprising competent through Zeihan’s story. In describing the history of Bretton Woods, he runs through some key participants and highlights the benefits of their membership. India, hurting the Soviets in South Asia; Sweden, hurting them in the Baltic; Argentina and Egypt, limiting their influence in South America and the Middle East; and most significantly, China, depriving them of their best ports. Why did America fight in Korea and Vietnam? To demonstrate the value of the security guarantee component of the Bretton Woods regime (“if the Americans proved unwilling to engage the Chinese in Korea, then was their security guarantee for the Germans against the Soviets really worth what they said it was?”).
Zeihan knows how this sounds, but he backs it up with analysis of the dependencies of the modern world, from energy needs throughout Europe (only Norway is self-sufficient) to food requirements throughout the Middle East and assorted other countries. Resource constraints and the population boom that resulted from the green revolution in agriculture in the 20th century have him talking about “The wars of the not too distant future” that will be over “the ability to remain part of the modern world. Or simply to remain.”
Book Review: Arabian Nights
May 24, 2021 · Original source
Scheherazade's stories are set in an idealized Middle East. The sultans are always wise and just, the princes are always strong and handsome, and almost a full half of viziers are non-evil. Named characters are always so beautiful and skilled and virtuous that it sometimes gets used it as a plot device - a character is separated from his family member or lover, so he wanders into a caravanserai and asks for news of someone who is excessively beautiful and skilled and virtuous. "Oh yes," says one of the merchants, "I talked to a traveler from Cairo who said he encountered the most beautiful and skilled and virtuous person he'd ever seen in a garden there, he couldn't shut up about them for days" - and now you know your long-lost brother must be in Cairo. In one case, a woman went searching for her long-lost son, tasted some pomegranate jam in Damascus, and immediately (and correctly!) concluded that only her son could make pomegranate jam that good. She demanded to know where the merchant had gotten the jam, and the trail led to a happy reunion.
The most common jobs in Idealized Middle East are sultan, merchant, poor-but-pious tailor, fisherman, merchant, evil vizier, sorcerer, merchant, thief, person who gets hired to assist a sorcerer because they have the exact right astrological chart to perform some otherwise-impossible ritual, and merchant. Of these, merchant is number one. Whatever else you're doing - sailing, stealing, using your perfect astrological chart to enter a giant glowing door in the desert mysteriously invisible to everyone else - you're probably also dealing goods on the side. The only exceptions are Moroccans (who are all sorcerers), Zoroastrians (who are all demonic cannibals), and Jews (who are all super-double merchants scamming everyone else). Also maybe the 5 - 10% of the Middle Eastern population who witches have turned into animals at any given time.
The most common hobby in the Idealized Middle East is telling and listening to stories. Whenever something interesting happens in the city, the people involved are brought before the sultan to tell the story. If an especially beautiful and skilled and virtuous person is spotted in the city, they are recognized as a likely protagonist, and brought before the sultan to tell their story. Sometimes when criminals are brought to the sultan, the police will read off their ridiculous convoluted crimes, and the sultan will say "What a wondrous story!", and the criminals will say "O Sultan, if I can tell you a story even more wondrous than that, will you pardon me?" and the sultan always says yes. The sultan is always amazed, and pardons the criminal, and states that the story should be written in letters of liquid gold for the edification of future generations. Sultans are such suckers for stories that they basically never get a chance to rule, which I assume is why government is mostly run by evil viziers.
Dictator Book Club: Orban
November 04, 2021 · Original source
Hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees traveling from the Middle East to Europe found themselves passing through Hungary. They filled up the underfunded refugee camps, they filled up city streets, they camped by the thousands outside railway stations they hoped would take them to Germany or Scandinavia. When there were no food or tents left, they rioted.
Highlights From The Comments On Orban
November 11, 2021 · Original source
I think the main difference is that there isn't a 3rd country at the USA-Mexico border and USA is the target country for immigrants anyway. Hungary is just one of a several countries on a route from Middle East to Western Europe, so if they make their wall slighly more inconvenient than the neighboring countries that's enough to sway the torrent of immigrants another way.
On a related note, the EU migrant situation might be about to get pretty weird: defenseone.com/ideas/2021/11/… ","username":"tomgara","name":"Tom Gara","profile_image_url":"","date":"Wed Nov 10 18:39:01 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FD2ldfEXMAg2fRI.png","link_url":"https://t.co/dv49R461dF","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"reply_count":0,"retweet_count":123,"like_count":186,"impression_count":0,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM"> Mikk writes:
Inline links: writes
Your Book Review: The Dawn Of Everything
June 10, 2022 · Original source
Nor did the agricultural revolution, even as it was occurring, result in one way of living; it seems like during the transition toward farming very different societies were possible, even those that lived in proximity to one another, the exact same as hunter-gatherer societies. Consider the upland and lowland sectors of the Fertile Crescent in the Middle East; sectors which are themselves demarcated by Göbekli Tepe, the world’s oldest construction of stone megaliths, dated to around 9,000 BC.
Your Book Review: The Internationalists
July 01, 2022 · Original source
Qutb’s crusade is not a nationalist one. Seeing the history of the Middle East as a legacy of foreign control, he argued, misleads Arabs into thinking that the solution must be local control. Arab nationalists think that the antidote to imperialism is nationalism—Churchill must be replaced by Nasser. But that is a trap. Rule by man—any man—is the problem, not the solution. Victory over Jahiliyyah cannot be achieved by adopting an Arab form of Jahiliyyah. Eastern Jahiliyyah is no better than the Western version. In Qutb’s messianic view, triumph requires nothing less than a global Islamic state. (Chapter 17)
Your Book Review: The Outlier
July 08, 2022 · Original source
Anyway, after two weeks of nonstop conversation between the three countries’ teams—during which negotiations almost fail more than once—they reach a deal. Essentially, the broad outlines are: 1) Egypt will officially recognize Israel and end the state of war between the two countries and 2) Israel will stop building settlements in the West Bank and transition towards self-governance for inhabitants of both the West Bank and Gaza [3]. The Camp David Accords, as they’re known, are a phenomenal success, putting the region on a path straight to the utopia it is today: a prosperous, conflict-free Middle East in which democracy and human rights flourish and the Palestinian people have full self-determination.
Nothing pairs better with an economic crisis than a foreign policy crisis. Luckily, fate has one at the ready. As usual for the 70’s, it starts in the Middle East.
Flush with confidence from his Panama Canal victory (his canalchemy? his Panamachievement?), Carter decides he should continue tackling foreign policy problems other people think are impossible. And there’s one obvious candidate: the conflict between Israel and the Arab states. Every single one of his advisors tells him this is a huge mistake and he definitely shouldn’t get involved, but knowing Carter, this only makes him want to do it more. His strategy: bring Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachim Begin to Camp David for a series of intense negotiations. As usual, Carter believes that if he can just get the relevant parties in a room with him, he can convince them to see things his way.
Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023
February 20, 2023 · Original source
1. UK leaves EU (or still on track to do so): 95% 2. No “far-right” party in power (executive or legislative) in any of France, Germany, UK, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, at any time: 50% 3. No other country currently in EU votes to leave: 50% 4. No overt major power war in the Middle East (Israel spending a couple weeks destroying stuff in Lebanon doesn’t count): 60% 5. Mohammed bin Salman still in power in Saudi Arabia in 2023: 60% 6. Sub-Saharan Africa averages GDP growth greater than 2.5% over 2018 – 2023: 60% 7. Vladimir Putin is still in charge of Russia: 70% 8. If there’s a war in the Middle East where US intervention is plausible, US decides to intervene (at least as much as it did in Syria): 70%
Countries that may have an especially good half-decade: Israel, India, Nigeria, most of East Africa, Iran. Countries that may have an especially bad half-decade: Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, UK. The Middle East will get worse before it gets better, especially Lebanon and the Arabian Peninsula (Syria might get better, though).
I grade 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7 as true, and 2 and 6 as false. I don’t think my country predictions were especially good or bad, except that Russia and the UK have indeed been having a hard time. The Middle East as a whole did not get worse. Lebanon did have an economic collapse but has stayed relatively politically stable; the Arabian Peninsula is doing pretty well with a cease-fire still hanging on in Yemen.
Open Thread 297
October 09, 2023 · Original source
EDIT: Please think hard before commenting about recent events in the Middle East. They’re important and I’m not going to blanket-ban all discussion, but take a second before you hit “post” to think about how some readers here might have family members who are affected, and how everyone involved is a human being who’s experiencing these events in real life. I will have a hair trigger for deleting posts and permabanning commenters.
23
December 05, 2023 · Original source
Moving on to the Middle East:
Book Review: Cyropaedia
January 10, 2024 · Original source
I think the Persians went in three generations from a hill tribe without cities, to a hill tribe ruling over the small city of Anshan, to total mastery of the Middle East. The last part happened entirely during the lifetime of Cyrus the Great, partly due to Cyrus’ personal virtues and partly due to some poorly-understood event involving the Median Empire.
Xenophon’s view of Persia - they were great because they were hard men who resisted decadence - is what historian-blogger Bret Devereaux calls “The Fremen Mirage”. Devereaux is against this. He has a long, very interesting series on how this trope gets called up to serve various unsavory agendas, but in real life settled “decadent” states usually beat hard “manly” barbarians. Sure, some barbarians eventually conquered the Western Roman Empire. But before that happened, the Romans conquered hundreds of barbarian tribes in the process of taking the entire Mediterranean region and holding it for hundreds of years. The score is still settled states 100, barbarians 1. And this is a typical record - look at China, the Middle East, etc, and you will find a similar pattern.
Inline links: historian-blogger Bret Devereaux calls “The Fremen Mirage”
Early Islamic Arabs taking over the Middle East: Devereaux doesn’t mention this, except for a half-sentence with no content in the Ibn Khaldun section. How do you forget this one in a piece about the Fremen? Charitably, perhaps we should ignore this since the Byzantines and Persians were both exhausted from fighting each other.
Open Thread 312
January 22, 2024 · Original source
4: Extremely related new rule: all Middle East related discussion on this Open Thread is confined to a Middle East sub-comment-thread here.
Inline links: a Middle East sub-comment-thread here
Open Thread 314
February 05, 2024 · Original source
5: I would still like all Middle East discussion on the Middle East Containment Subthread at the bottom of the Open Thread.
Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024
March 30, 2024 · Original source
Africa & Middle East
If you need to change a meetup date or you have any other questions, please email skyler[at]rationalitymeetups[dot]org. Africa & Middle East Israel HAIFA, ISRAEL Contact: Shai Contact Info: dizinteria[at]walla[dot]com Time: Tuesday, April 9th, 6:00 PM Location: We'll be in the zikaron garden next to the city hall, in a picnic blanket on the grass and I will be wearing a red shirt and carrying a sign with ACX MEETUP on it.If it rains we will meet up in a bookstore called 'goldmund' which is located at ekron street 6. Coordinates: https://plus.codes/8G4PRX7X+CQ
Inline links: https://plus.codes/8G4PRX7X+CQ
Your Book Review: Nine Lives
September 13, 2024 · Original source
Someone writing The Authenticity of Various Hadiths: Much More Than You Wanted to Know probably won’t bring peace to the Middle East in itself, but still, Dean’s advice is good encouragement that actually engaging in debate with people on their own terms can be worthwhile, even with people who are as deeply lost as the jihadists.
Like, who is he supposed to date and marry? If it’s a moderate or secular woman from Britain, his comrades will immediately realize he is no longer the fanatic jihadist he pretends to be. If he asks his relatives to find him a wife (as he sometimes considered doing so) from their Saudi circles, among women who would be proud to marry a jihadist… well, that’s going to end badly, isn’t it? Finding friends is not much easier for similar reasons. And the job itself — constantly pretending to be someone else, and fraternizing with extremists in the Middle East, Britain and on the Internet — is not anyone’s dream job. It’s not even very spy-novel-y most of the time: Dean would only get involved in an actually dangerous plot or learn an important secret once every year or two, otherwise it’s mostly boring monitoring. It’s no surprise that he considered quitting many times. But then the world would lose a vital information source on terrorist plots, and who knows what attack would go through that he could otherwise prevent, so he never quit, until an American journalist accidentally ended his career.
Since then, he has started doing consultancy work for Middle Eastern firms for preventing their employees from becoming extremists, and for banks for helping to monitor transactions that might be connected to terrorists. He probably saves fewer lives now, but seems much happier with these jobs. He married a moderate Muslim woman in Britain and now they have a child. I wish them the best.
Against The Cultural Christianity Argument
October 04, 2024 · Original source
But the Christian cultural package also fell apart and became the current post-Christian world. This wasn't just a one-time coincidence either. Protestantism gave way to modernism in Scandinavia, Germany, and the US. Catholicism gave way to modernism in Spain, Italy, and Latin America. Orthodoxy gave way to modernism in Greece, Eastern Europe, and Russia (with a slight Putinist resurrection-in-name-only which hardly seems to have produced a flourishing liberal society). Meanwhile in China, the local mix of Buddhism/Confucianism/Taoism gave way to modernism. In South East Asia, Buddhism gave way to modernism. Only 10% of Israeli Jews are ultra-Orthodox, and it would be lower if they didn't breed so fast. India is moderately Hindu but still noticeably modern. Even the Middle East is gradually becoming less Muslim.
Book Review: The Rise Of Christianity
November 12, 2024 · Original source
Imagine taking a time machine to the year 2300 AD, and everyone is Scientologist. The United States is >99% Scientologist. So is Latin America and most of Europe. The Middle East follows some heretical pseudo-Scientology that thinks L Ron Hubbard was a great prophet, but maybe not the greatest prophet.
25
February 03, 2025 · Original source
4: Kanye West has announced interest in building his own charter city in the Middle East. I was about to object “…but didn’t he get cancelled for anti-Semitism?” which would have been the dumbest sentence in ACX history. Really, Scott? You can’t run a vaguely statelike organization in the Middle East if you’re too anti-Semitic? I don’t know why any of you still take me seriously.
Inline links: building his own charter city in the Middle East
ACX Grants 1-3 Year Updates
June 18, 2025 · Original source
Since 2022, Alice has undertaken qualitative research in nine world regions: Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil, Morocco, Italy, Spain, Britain, US, Poland, Turkey, India, Uzbekistan, South Korea and Hong Kong. Through this globally comparative analysis, she analyses the drivers and obstacles to gender equality. Gender interventions will be more impactful if they target locally binding constraints - in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia, this is "the honour-income trade-off" (whereby male honour depends on female seclusion, and women tend to remain at home. Meanwhile, Latin America and the Caribbean face a different obstacle: pervasive violence elevates femicides. Over the past few years, she's held visiting appointments at Stanford, Chicago, and Yale, while providing policy advice to the World Bank, and sharing insights with a public audience via Substack (www.ggd.world). In April 2025, she gave a TedTalk on romantic love as an under-rated driver of gender equality.
Meetups Everywhere 2025: Times and Places
August 29, 2025 · Original source
Africa & Middle East
If you need to change a meetup date or you have any other questions, please email skyler[at]rationalitymeetups[ period]org. Africa & The Middle East Israel RISHON LEZION Contact: Anatoly Vorobey Contact Info: avorobey[a t]gmail[period]com Time: Thursday, September 18th, 6:00 PM Location: Tables just behind the playground located behind the municipal court building, Meishar street Coordinates: https://plus.codes/8G3PXQ9J+G9
Inline links: https://plus.codes/8G3PXQ9J+G9
(See Ankara. It’s in Asia & the Middle East.)
Mantic Monday: Groundhog Day
March 03, 2026 · Original source
Speaking of Groundhog Day, we’re bombing the Middle East again. Here’s what the markets have to say: