Ukraine Warcasting

Article

Ukraine Warcasting is a recurring publication in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between March 07, 2022 and March 14, 2022. The archive places it in contexts such as “On my previous post, Ukraine Warcasting, I asked people for the names of anyone who had successfully predicted”; “Ukraine Warcasting Changes in Ukraine prediction markets since my last post”. It most often appears alongside effective altruism, ACX Grants, Adam Something.

Metadata

• Category: Publications
• Mention count: 2
• Issue count: 2
• First seen: March 07, 2022
• Last seen: March 14, 2022

Appears In

• Open Thread 214
• 22

Related Pages

• • effective altruism (2 shared issues)
• • ACX Grants (1 shared issues)
• • Adam Something (1 shared issues)
• • Anatoly Karlin (1 shared issues)
• • Arb Consulting (1 shared issues)
• • Augur (1 shared issues)
• • Biodeterminists’ Guide To Pregnancy (1 shared issues)
• • CIA (1 shared issues)
• • CSET-Foretell forecasting competition (1 shared issues)
• • EA Forum (1 shared issues)
• • Effective Altruism Forum (1 shared issues)
• • EHarding (1 shared issues)

External Links

• • http://web.archive.org/web/20221104130431/https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/1m-bet-rules
• • http://web.archive.org/web/20221129133112/https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaim-accepts-500000-challenge-on-covid-vaccine-safety-efficacy/
• • http://web.archive.org/web/20221224061743/https://www.skirsch.com/covid/SaarWilf.pdf
• • https://abc7news.com/post/graffiti-in-san-francisco-tagging-vandalism-street/13801629/
• • https://archive.ph/pY4gF#selection-663.103-683.190
• • https://web.archive.org/web/20230104080248/https://www.rootclaim.com/
• • https://what3words.com/guitars.record.caps
• • https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/secrets-of-the-great-families
• • https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/selection-bias-is-a-fact-of-life
• • https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/27/business/media/heather-cox-richardson-substack-boston-college.html
• • https://www.statista.com/chart/21581/public-opinion-on-easing-stay-at-home-restrictions/
• • https://www.swiftcentre.org/ukraine-russia-outlook/

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Open Thread 214

March 07, 2022 · Original source

3: On my previous post, Ukraine Warcasting, I asked people for the names of anyone who had successfully predicted both the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the strong Ukrainian resistance, and said I’d signal-boost them if they existed. Someone brought up a Hungarian YouTuber named Adam Something, who I am dutifully signal-boosting. Another commenter pointed out that Anatoly Karlin was wrong before he was right. Many such cases!

Inline links: brought up, dutifully signal-boosting, was wrong before he was right

22

March 14, 2022 · Original source

Ukraine Warcasting Changes in Ukraine prediction markets since my last post February 28: - Will Kiev fall to Russian forces by April 2022 ?: 69% —→ 14% - Will at least three of six big cit...

Ukraine Warcasting Changes in Ukraine prediction markets since my last post February 28: - Will Kiev fall to Russian forces by April 2022 ?: 69% —→ 14% - Will at least three of six big cities fall by June 1? : 71% —→ 70% - Will World War III hap...

Backlinks

• 22
• Open Thread 214
• Publications: U