Astral Codex Ten

Dow

4 min read

Dow

Article

Dow is a recurring concept in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 6 times across 6 issues between April 05, 2021 and January 24, 2023. The archive places it in contexts such as “Dow is above 25,000”; “Dow above 35K”; “But the Dow dropped 0.5% yesterday, which means that bad financial things are happening now”. It most often appears alongside Biden, Bitcoin, COVID.

Metadata

  • Category: Concepts
  • Mention count: 6
  • Issue count: 6
  • First seen: April 05, 2021
  • Last seen: January 24, 2023

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

2020 Predictions: Calibration Results
April 05, 2021 · Original source
ECON AND TECH: 37. Dow is above 25,000: 70% 38. …above 30,000: 20% 39. Bitcoin is above $5,000: 70% 40. …above $10,000: 20% 41. I have bought a Surface Book 3 laptop: 60% 42. Crew Dragon reaches orbit: 80% 43. Starship reaches orbit: 40%
Inline links: 41. I have bought a Surface Book 3 laptop: 60%
Mantic Monday: Predictions For 2021
April 26, 2021 · Original source
ECON/TECH 14. Gamestop stock price still above $100: 50% 15. Bitcoin above 100K: 40% 16. Ethereum above 5K: 50% 17. Ethereum above 0.05 BTC: 70% 18. Dow above 35K: 90% 19. ...above 37.5K: 70% 20. Unemployment above 5%: 40% 21. Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked: 20% 22. Starship reaches orbit: 60%
Contra Acemoglu On...Oh God, We're Doing This Again, Aren't We?
July 27, 2021 · Original source
Does Acemoglu argue this way when he writes about economics? “Some people warn of a coming economic collapse. But the Dow dropped 0.5% yesterday, which means that bad financial things are happening now. Therefore we should stop worrying about a future collapse.” This is not how I remember Acemoglu’s papers at all! I remember them being very careful and full of sober statistical analysis. But somehow when people wade into AI, this kind of reasoning becomes absolutely state of the art. There isn’t a single argument besides “AI does bad things now” in this entire article, but in the end it acts like it has disproven the conjecture that future superintelligent AI can be bad.
Grading My 2021 Predictions
January 24, 2022 · Original source
ECON/TECH 14. Gamestop stock price still above $100: 50% 15. Bitcoin above 100K: 40% 16. Ethereum above 5K: 50% 17. Ethereum above 0.05 BTC: 70% 18. Dow above 35K: 90% 19. ...above 37.5K: 70% 20. Unemployment above 5%: 40% 21. Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked: 20% 22. Starship reaches orbit: 60%
Predictions For 2022
February 01, 2022 · Original source
ECON/TECH 11. Gamestop stock price still above $100: 30% 12. Bitcoin above 100K: 20% 13. Ethereum above 5K: 20% 14. Ethereum above 0.05 BTC: 90% 15. Bored Ape floor price here below current price of $203K: 40% 16. Dow above 35K: 90% 17. ...above 37.5K: 40% 18. Inflation for the year below five percent: 90% 19. Unemployment below five percent: 50% 20. Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked: 50% 21. Starship reaches orbit: 90%
Inline links: here
Who Predicted 2022?
January 24, 2023 · Original source
No direct inline source block was recovered for this mention.