Zoroastrian

Article

Zoroastrian is a recurring concept in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between May 23, 2023 and February 29, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “US President in 2050 will not be a Zoroastrian”; “7.7% Zoroastrian! Official Iranian numbers say there are about 25K Zoroastrians in Iran”. It most often appears alongside @BoyanSlat, @eigenrobot, @JackTindale.

Metadata

• Category: Concepts
• Mention count: 2
• Issue count: 2
• First seen: May 23, 2023
• Last seen: February 29, 2024

Appears In

• 23
• Links For February 2024

Related Pages

• • @BoyanSlat (1 shared issues)
• • @eigenrobot (1 shared issues)
• • @JackTindale (1 shared issues)
• • @literalbanana (1 shared issues)
• • @NiohBerg (1 shared issues)
• • @seanw_m (1 shared issues)
• • A16Z (1 shared issues)
• • Abolition Of Man (1 shared issues)
• • ACX Grants (1 shared issues)
• • Africa (1 shared issues)
• • AI Prospects (1 shared issues)
• • Alex Telford (1 shared issues)

External Links

• • http://web.archive.org/web/20221104130431/https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/1m-bet-rules
• • http://web.archive.org/web/20221129133112/https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaim-accepts-500000-challenge-on-covid-vaccine-safety-efficacy/
• • http://web.archive.org/web/20221224061743/https://www.skirsch.com/covid/SaarWilf.pdf
• • https://archive.ph/pY4gF#selection-663.103-683.190
• • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mazdak
• • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoroastrianism_in_Iran
• • https://web.archive.org/web/20230104080248/https://www.rootclaim.com/
• • https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/secrets-of-the-great-families
• • https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/selection-bias-is-a-fact-of-life
• • https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/27/business/media/heather-cox-richardson-substack-boston-college.html

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

23

May 23, 2023 · Original source

I interpret this as: it’s tempting to treat this as Team Long-Range-Forecasting-Is-Possible Vs. Team No-It-Isn’t. But everyone agrees certain kinds of long-range forecasts are possible (I predict with high confidence that the US President in 2050 will not be a Zoroastrian) and others are impossible (I cannot begin to predict the name of the US President in 2050). People who consider themselves “believers” vs. “skeptics” about long-range forecasting should figure out the exact boundary of which cases they disagree on. And then Tetlock et al can test those cases and figure out who’s right.

Links For February 2024

February 29, 2024 · Original source

Iranians in the comments chiming in to say this matches their experience. Also, notice the 7.7% Zoroastrian! Official Iranian numbers say there are about 25K Zoroastrians in Iran, but this suggests more like 7 million! This Wiki article suggests that the 25K are ancestral Zoroastrians, and the other 6.975 million are people who are “expressing Persian nationalism and a desire for an alternative to Islam, rather than strict adherence to the Zoroastrian faith”.

Inline links: about 25K Zoroastrians in Iran, This Wiki article

Backlinks

• Concepts: Z
• Links For February 2024
• 23