Astral Codex Ten

Manifest

8 min read

Manifest

Article

Manifest is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 16 times across 16 issues between August 06, 2023 and June 18, 2025. The archive places it in contexts such as “Due to changing plans, I might not be able to make it to Manifest , currently less than 50-50 chance”; “Manifest, their forecasting and prediction market conference in Berkeley, CA”; “I’m more likely to make it to Manifest than I thought, ~75% chance”. It most often appears alongside Berkeley, Astralcodexten Com, Manifold.

Metadata

  • Category: Events
  • Mention count: 16
  • Issue count: 16
  • First seen: August 06, 2023
  • Last seen: June 18, 2025

Appears In

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

Open Thread 288
August 06, 2023 · Original source
1: Due to changing plans, I might not be able to make it to Manifest, currently less than 50-50 chance, sorry if you were hoping to see me there.
Inline links: Manifest
Open Thread 293
September 11, 2023 · Original source
2: Manifold Markets wants me to remind you that this is approximately your last chance to sign up for Manifest, their forecasting and prediction market conference in Berkeley, CA. Guests will include Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Aella, Zvi, and the CEOs of Kalshi, Manifold, and Polymarket. I’m still figuring out if I can make it but I’ll try my best.
Inline links: Manifest, their forecasting and prediction market conference
Open Thread 294
September 18, 2023 · Original source
4: No promises yet, but I’m more likely to make it to Manifest than I thought, ~75% chance. Hopefully I’ll see some of you there!
Open Thread 295
September 25, 2023 · Original source
1: It was great getting to meet many of you at Manifest! Congratulations/thanks to all the organizers and the Lightcone team. I’ll write up the conference, but probably not until next week. Now that forecasting people can think about something other than Manifest, I hope to have the impact certs judged in the next few weeks, then start planning ACX Grants.
Impact Market Mini-Grants Results
October 09, 2023 · Original source
Tyler Cowen likes to say that grants are as much about investing in people as in projects, so I also wanted to compliment the founders: Jingyi, Saul, and Tom, from (respectively) Brandeis, Brandeis, and Harvard. Saul has since gone on to be the lead organizer for Manifest, a forecasting conference with 200+ attendees and talks by Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, and many more. Jingyi is an officer of Brandeis Effective Altruism. And I remember Tom as being a top performer in the 22-and-under age bracket in last year’s Prediction Contest. Good luck to all of them in their remaining college and future endeavors.
Inline links: Prediction Contest
23
October 31, 2023 · Original source
Last month, the Lighthaven convention center in Berkeley hosted Manifest, the first conference for prediction market enthusiasts. By now this has already been covered elsewhere, including in a great article by the New York Times, but here are some particular highlights:
Inline links: in a great article by the
And many more. Finally, no discussion of Manifest would be complete without mentioning these shirts: And speaking of Polymarket, they were present in force and promising great things. I am sworn to secrecy on some of them, but they were pretty public about their plans to eventually let users to create real-money markets on topics of their choice, so watch this space. Manifold.love They finally did it and made good on their threats to open up a prediction market dating site, manifold.love: What’s the prediction angle? For any user, you can suggest a match with any other user on the site, and bet on the chance that the match will work (last at least six months): So far it has the normal problem - not enough women - but otherwise seems fully functional and much more user-friendly than most dating sites. I’ll look into this more later, but some brief preliminary thoughts: Is “chance of a six month relationship” conditional on dating at least once, or unconditional? If unconditional, is there any way for it to resolve no?
Inline links: many more, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-HhR!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc6a8d5a7-ace5-4b4a-8d5f-ac592055e1e9_1284x863.jpeg, Polymarket, manifold.love, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xtiC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc0190039-331b-45e9-b830-4da1bc00ba83_1195x642.png, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Kg_-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c07ac7f-3479-4973-bbd6-438f16d1d0e9_553x722.png
Open Thread 318
March 04, 2024 · Original source
2: Last year Manifold Markets held a prediction market conference/festival, Manifest, in Berkeley. I thought it was a lot of fun. They’re going to do it again this year, June 7 to 9th, you can get tickets here, cheaper early bird tickets ($249) are first come, first serve.
Inline links: here
Open Thread 324
April 08, 2024 · Original source
3: The Less Wrong team is hosting a conference/festival for the rationalist and rationalist-adjacent blogosphere, Less Online, the weekend before Manifest. Berkeley CA, 5/31 - 6/2, $400 per ticket, some housing and childcare available. I’ll be there.
Inline links: Less Online
Open Thread 329
May 13, 2024 · Original source
4: And Lighthaven is still hosting two back-to-back conferences in Berkeley in late May early June, of which you are invited to both. First, Less Online, a conference for rationalists and rationalist-blog-readers, May 31 - June 2. I might have announced this before, but new guests since I last mentioned it include Patrick McKenzie, Agnes Callard, Kevin Simler, Cremieux, and Aella. Second, Manifest, a conference on prediction markets, June 7 - 9. I’ll be at both. Ticket prices go up midnight on Monday. If you want to meet the guests but can’t pay, there should be an ACX meetup at Lightcone around that time, which many guests will be attending and which will be free admission.
Inline links: Less Online,, Manifest
24
May 13, 2024 · Original source
5: Manifest, the prediction market conference, is still in Berkeley this June, see here for more information.
Inline links: see here for more information
Links for May 2024
May 29, 2024 · Original source
16: TracingWoodgrains quits Blocked and Reported, reveals his name and face. No word on his next steps, but I look forward to meeting him at Manifest and to seeing what he’ll do next.
Inline links: TracingWoodgrains quits Blocked and Reported
Open Thread 375
March 31, 2025 · Original source
2: There’s another Manifest (Manifold-sponsored fun conference on prediction markets) this year. June 6-8 in Berkeley, tickets are $538 but look for various combos/deals/discounts. More information here.
Inline links: here
Open Thread 383
May 26, 2025 · Original source
3: Less Online and Manifest are rationalist blogosphere and prediction market conferences, respectively, held at the same Berkeley venue one week apart in late May / early June. Guests (attending at least one; check which) include me, Eliezer, Zvi, Aella, Nate Silver, and some of the AI 2027 team. Last-minute tickets still available. In between the two is Arbor Summer Camp, a lower-key, longer “experimental learning” event. It includes some trading/startup related classes, featuring Ricki Heicklen, Austin Chen, and others. Check out their startup workshop and startup pitch competition.
Inline links: Less Online, Manifest, Arbor Summer Camp, startup workshop, startup pitch competition
Open Thread 384
June 02, 2025 · Original source
3: It was good to meet some of you last weekend at LessOnline, and probably will be good to meet even more of you next weekend at Manifest. Blogging may be lighter than usual as I attend all of this, sorry
Berkeley Meetup This Wednesday
June 03, 2025 · Original source
Why: Our usual spring meetups session, plus lots of out-of-state people in town for Manifest.
Inline links: spring meetups, Manifest
Who: Anyone who wants. Please feel free to come even if you feel awkward about it, even if you’re not “the typical ACX reader”, even if you’re worried people won’t like you, etc. I’ll be there; some of the other Manifest special guests might make it too.
ACX Grants 1-3 Year Updates
June 18, 2025 · Original source
Manifest, a beloved Bay Area conference on prediction markets and everything else.
Inline links: Manifest