World Series
Article
World Series is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between May 13, 2024 and September 17, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “‘will the Yankees win the World Series?’”; “the World Series ($5 million)“. It most often appears alongside CFTC, FutureSearch, Kalshi.
Metadata
- Category: Events
- Mention count: 2
- Issue count: 2
- First seen: May 13, 2024
- Last seen: September 17, 2024
Appears In
Related Pages
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- CFTC (2 shared issues)
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- FutureSearch (2 shared issues)
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- Kalshi (2 shared issues)
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- Manifold (2 shared issues)
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- Metaculus (2 shared issues)
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- Nate Silver (2 shared issues)
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- Polymarket (2 shared issues)
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- PredictIt (2 shared issues)
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- 17 CFR Part 40 (1 shared issues)
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- 2024 election (1 shared issues)
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- AI (1 shared issues)
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- Area 51 (1 shared issues)
External Links
Source Context
Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.
The proposed resolution is 17 CFR Part 40. It starts by explaining the current state of the law: the CFTC is allowed to regulate “events contracts”, ie predictions. The law says they should favor contracts about economic events (like “will interest rates go up”), and disfavor contracts about atrocities or gaming (like “will there be a terrorist attack?” or “will the Yankees win the World Series?”). Everything else - the bread and butter of prediction markets - is in a gray zone that the CFTC has to review on a case-by-case basis.
Inline links: 17 CFR Part 40
Some of this is no doubt due to the hard work of Shayne and his team improving the site. But let’s be honest. It’s mostly because people really want to bet money on Trump/Harris 2024. The presidential market has a total volume of $910 million, far above eg markets about the Superbowl ($50 million), the World Series ($5 million), and the bird flu epidemic ($141,000).