2024 election

Article

2024 election is a recurring event in the Astral Codex Ten archive, appearing 2 times across 2 issues between March 21, 2024 and May 13, 2024. The archive places it in contexts such as “What is the probability that Joe Biden will win the 2024 election?”; “Polymarket on 2024 election results”. It most often appears alongside Manifold, 17 CFR Part 40, 2050.

Metadata

• Category: Events
• Mention count: 2
• Issue count: 2
• First seen: March 21, 2024
• Last seen: May 13, 2024

Appears In

• In Continued Defense Of Non-Frequentist Probabilities
• 24

Related Pages

• • Manifold (2 shared issues)
• • 17 CFR Part 40 (1 shared issues)
• • 2050 (1 shared issues)
• • AI (1 shared issues)
• • Austin (1 shared issues)
• • Austin Chen (1 shared issues)
• • Berkeley (1 shared issues)
• • Bibi (1 shared issues)
• • Biden (1 shared issues)
• • CFTC (1 shared issues)
• • CFTC chairman (1 shared issues)
• • CFTC commissioners (1 shared issues)

External Links

• • https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/argentinas-poverty-rate-spikes-53-6-months-president-114221438
• • https://archive.nytimes.com/well.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/03/new-york-attorney-general-targets-supplements-at-major-retailers/
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/another-bay-area-house-party
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-cult-of-smart#comment-1292538
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-which-country-has-the
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/classifieds-thread-12022/comment/4732494
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/how-trustworthy-are-supplements/comment/9510016
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-august-2023/comment/22127925
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-august-2023/comment/22171207
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/nick-cammarata-on-jhana/comment/10017375
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/nick-cammarata-on-jhana/comment/10017660
• • https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/nick-cammarata-on-jhana/comment/10018037

Source Context

Recovered passages from the original issue text. When the raw archive preserved outbound links inside the source passage, they are listed directly under the quote.

In Continued Defense Of Non-Frequentist Probabilities

March 21, 2024 · Original source

What is the probability that Joe Biden will win the 2024 election?

24

May 13, 2024 · Original source

Nate Silver, Josh Barro, and others have been banging this drum recently: the most important thing Democrats can do this year is get Sonia Sotomayor to retire. Sotomayor is an older liberal-leaning Supreme Court justice. She might get sick or die in the next four years, and if Republicans win the 2024 election, then they get to choose her replacement and the Court shifts even further right. If she retired today, Biden and the Democratic Senate would choose her replacement and the Court wouldn’t shift. She doesn’t want to resign, but Silver (remembering the similar case of RBG) thinks Democrats should pressure her as best they can. The markets have been shifting between 20% and 40%, but don’t seem to expect this to happen.

Inline links: Nate Silver, Josh Barro

Polymarket on 2024 election results. In the past they’ve had a Republican bias, but now their Presidential markets are in tune with everyone else in the polls, so maybe this is accurate.

Backlinks

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